**uNL Concept of the week: Week 5, Reverse Implied Odds**

EMc · #1 11-20-2006, 04:07 PM

NL is a complex game. We all know this. Sure, you get 2 cards, but the game is far more than just the 2 in your hand and the 5 on the board. For the next few weeks, uNL is going to have a concept of the week thread discussing a certain concept or theory in NL Hold'em.

In this thread you should post HH's showing situations where the concept was applied effectively as well as examples of poor usage of the concept. Also, please debate over various aspects of the concept and it's pro's and con's.
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Reverse Implied Odds is one of the most misunderstood yet important concepts in unlimted betting hold them (if you dont get that reference read more BBV). But, what exactly are Reverse Implied Odds

What are Reverse Implied Odds (RIO)?

From Theory of Poker, Pg 59, by David Sklansky

[ QUOTE ]
There are other times you must realize that your odds are not as good as they seem. These situations occur wen you have a medicore hand with little chance of improving, which you think is the best hand at the moment, yet your opponent keeps betting. ...Since he is controlling the betting, he will back off on late rounds if he doesnt have you beat. Thus you are in a position to win the minimum if you have the best hand, and lose the maximum if you have the worst hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

When do RIO exist?
In summary, you are in a RIO situation when you stand to make a little and lose a lot. You arent sure where you exist in the hand, Little chance of improvment, a call may commit you to the hand, and your opponent controls the flow of the hand.

How to recognize than avoid RIO situations
Sometimes, it is hard to avoid and recognize RIO situations immediately. They often stem from a call on an earlier street, usually with a dominated hand. If you see that you will normally be calling rather than betting, that is a good indication you are in a RIO situation. When making decisions on earlier streets, you need to think about whether or not you will be in a RIO situation.

__________________________________________________ ___________
Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $.25/$.50
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $45.55
UTG+1: $20.87
Hero: $65.50
Button: $15.50
SB: $47.75
BB: $35.85

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG raises to $2.5, 1 folds, Hero calls $2.5 , 3 folds.

Flop: A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($5.50, 2 players)
UTG Bets $4, Hero calls $4.

Here we have the beginnings of a RIO situation. Hero's hand strength is relativily unknown. He called a bet in position with a dominated hand, and saw a flop, and hit. Villain bets and hero just calls.

Turn: 3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG bets $10, Hero ?

Here is where the real RIO comes in. At this point Hero still has no idea of his relative hand strength, his opponent can still back off on the river if beat, he has little chance of improving and if he does still may be beat, and a call here commits you to the river

Another Example:

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG Calls, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.5 , 2 folds, BB Raises to 8, 1 fold, Hero calls.

It starts.

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
BB bets 15, Hero ?

RIO right here too.

Another good example:
200nl RIO situation

DeathbySuckout · #2 11-20-2006, 04:27 PM

Great topic, EMc. Hopefully this will engage a good discussion because I would like to learn more about RIO situations. Especially learning to recognize them before it's too late, and you're already committed.

ChipStorm · #3 11-20-2006, 04:31 PM

Thanks E, this is one of my favorites.

Just to make it incredibly painful:

Pre-flop: (5 players) Hero is BB with J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG Calls, MP calls, Button raises to $3.0, SB calls $2.75, Hero calls $2.5, 1 fold, MP calls.

(~$12) Flop (4 players): 7 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
SB bets 15, Hero ?

Decent chance you're best here on the flop, and you have position on the flop bettor. But if anyone stays for SB's bet, there is a stupendous chance that you will be outdrawn by the river. You're going to win small here or lose big. RIO.

One of the most valuable concepts I ever learned.

Imrahil · #4 11-20-2006, 04:40 PM

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($39.10)
BB ($1.20)
UTG ($40.10)
Button ($20)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Button raises to $1, Hero calls $0.90, 1 fold.

Flop: ($2.25) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $2.25, Hero calls $2.25.

Turn: ($6.75) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets $6.25, Hero folds.

[b]If I call here I will probably face a river bet too and I only beat A9, A8.

Final Pot: $13

Results in white below: 
No showdown. Button wins $13.

VorShot · #5 11-20-2006, 04:59 PM

AJ and JJ are the hands that tend to do this more then any others that i've seen.

Xanta · #6 11-20-2006, 07:51 PM

Is this where the AJo go all in joke stems from?

Xanta · #7 11-20-2006, 09:19 PM

Well I sure wish I read this thread a couple of hours ago.

Here's a pretty good example of what happens when you ignore the implications of reverse implied odds. Sorry about the non-supported hand history, I'll try to clean it up.

Villain is the first halfway decent player that I've seen at these stakes. His preflop aggression is way lower than what it should be for 5-max (which factors into his hand ranges), but he's fairly sound postflop and has taken some donks to valuetown. The rest are fairly standard $10NL donks.

$10 NL (5 Players)

Villain is UTG ($17.40)
CO ($15.93)
Button ($4.11)
SB ($3.75)
Hero is BB ($18.90)

Preflop Hero is BB with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Villain calls ($0.10), CO calls ($0.10), Button calls ($0.10), SB folds, Hero raises to $0.70 , Villain calls, 2 folds.

Flop ($1.65) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players) 
 Hero Bets ($1.60) , Villain calls.

Turn ($4.61) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players) 
 Hero Checks, Villain bets ($4.10), Hero Folds

I think that I ignored RIO at two points in this hand, preflop and the flop.

My rationale behind the large raise preflop was to take down the limpers, which I had done a couple times successfully this session already. However, I was in position with those hands, and AQo is a hand that plays really poorly OOP because of reverse implied odds. Lets see why!

I get called in one spot and I hit TPTK on a very suspect flop. This is a classic RIO spot, I think, and the cbet was a bad idea. If villain had 66-88 or AK or something else that missed, he folds and I scoop a small pot. If he re-raises me, I have to fold, and if he calls it's even worse as there are approximately infinity cards that kill my hand on the turn. In hindsight, I probably wasn't even ahead of villains range with TPTK here, and if so it wasn't by much. Win a little, lose a lot.

So villain calls and the turn comes a king. I'm now behind everything but low pocket pairs, very unlikely given the action and the fact that UTG isn't an idiot. There is really nothing here that I can do but check and fold.

Another thing to note was that RIO hurt even more when you're somewhat deepstacked like I was here, 180bb deep.

So nice post EC, it was just a little too late.

Tony Montana 22 · #8 11-21-2006, 03:56 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with J J
UTG Calls, 2 folds, Hero raises to $2.5 , 2 folds, BB Raises to 8, 1 fold, Hero calls.

It starts.

Flop: 7 6 8
BB bets 15, Hero ?

[/ QUOTE ]

Great topic, I definately need to improve on being able to recognize these situations before getting too deeply involved.

In the hand above, which happens alot, what is the best way to proceed?
Certainly it is player dependent, but say vs a typical NL 50 opponent.

What about reraising preflop?

eigenvalue · #9 11-21-2006, 12:22 PM

Look at the discussion of this hand:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showth...e=0#Post8130831

Hero is in a RIO situation.

kazana · #10 11-21-2006, 12:34 PM

Okay, so now that we all know what RIO is, what do you do to avoid losing more than winning?
You can't expect people to c/f JJ on a 678r flop? Right?
I admit that I hate those situations and feel lost just about every time this happens. Any suggestions?