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#1
10-07-2006, 03:49 AM
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Depressing, but surely value long term future.
I wouldn't want my money tied up for this length of time, but just for the sake of discussion, I just found this bet on Pinny.
Purely on merit (you need a huge edge to actually tie up your money for this long) <u>Under 7650 players 2007 WSOP main event -104</u> Lori 
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#4
10-07-2006, 07:02 AM
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Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
[ QUOTE ]
i posted this in this topic 5 days ago [/ QUOTE ] Sorry scorer, somehow managed to miss that [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] Lori
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#6
10-07-2006, 11:11 AM
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Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
Eh? So you're saying that the line was lower than it is now, and people hit the Under hard, and then Pinny pulls the line, and replaces it with a higher line? Doesn't make sense. Perhaps you saw the Over getting hit, not the Under. Or perhaps you saw the line at 8650.
But the combination of 6650, people betting Under, then having a higher line come out, does not make sense.
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#7
10-07-2006, 11:18 AM
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Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
[ QUOTE ]
Eh? So you're saying that the line was lower than it is now, and people hit the Under hard, and then Pinny pulls the line, and replaces it with a higher line? Doesn't make sense. Perhaps you saw the Over getting hit, not the Under. Or perhaps you saw the line at 8650. But the combination of 6650, people betting Under, then having a higher line come out, does not make sense. [/ QUOTE ] It was lower before and the under was having great odds. I saw it at 7500 earlier.
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#8
10-07-2006, 11:27 AM
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Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
[ QUOTE ]
Eh? So you're saying that the line was lower than it is now, and people hit the Under hard, and then Pinny pulls the line, and replaces it with a higher line? Doesn't make sense. Perhaps you saw the Over getting hit, not the Under. Or perhaps you saw the line at 8650. But the combination of 6650, people betting Under, then having a higher line come out, does not make sense. [/ QUOTE ] I know exactly what I saw. It was 6650!!! The under was quoted at +250. And it got hammered!!!
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#9
10-07-2006, 11:43 AM
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Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
Well, that's pretty weird because it's the over getting hammered now. I took Over +107, which moved to -116 not long afterwards, and it's now at -125.
I'm considering hitting Under +109 now (though I'm not sure if I can after max betting the over earlier?). I was sure the over was a complete gimme, but now you guys have me second guessing myself. The numbers of entrants has grown every year since '71 except for one minor hiccup about 15 years ago. The trend would have to not only slow down but significantly reverse itself for the under to have a chance here. The legislation that just passed need not take effect until next summer, and may not put any restrictions on Neteller use, which would make its effects rather limited. I was present at the most recent WSOP and from the vibe I got out there, there's no indication this movement is slowing down. Everybody was once again surprised at having underestimated the amount of players.
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#10
10-07-2006, 12:18 PM
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Re: Depressing, but surely value long term future.
If the 6650 and Under getting pounded are accurate, then there are 2 explanations left, I suppose:
1) Over got re-hammered super-hard afterwards when you didn't see it, and then the line re-adjusted. 2) Pinny is smoking crack. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]
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