WCOOP#2 Hand: QQ - would you fold this ?

[roamer590]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG (t4624)
UTG+1 (t8360)
MP1 (t5515)
Hero (t10171)
MP3 (t6800)
CO (t3887)
Button (t14646)
SB (t10899)
BB (t14170)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t600</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls t400.

Flop: (t1300) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t1000</font>, BB calls t1000.

Turn: (t3300) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t2500</font>, BB calls t2500.

River: (t8300) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets t6200</font>, Hero?

I have made no big bluffs in this tourney, got a tight table image and villain is a big stack but not too pushy w other players.

Please comment on how you would play this hand...

[registrar]

I play it the same and call the river (hit myself with the keyboard and tell myself that not every big bet on the river is a busted flush/congratulate myself that most big bets on the river are busted flushes).

I'm just not folding here because I'm narrowing his range to two hands: 33 and 10s. That's probably a leak.

[earck]

My guess is that he has you on two overs and that he MAYBE had a T. I just don't see him having a 3 or an 8. The 3 is possible but I would only put him on it if I had a read on him that he would call a raise with any hand in the BB. I'd think that QQ is good here.

[Sherman]

I think the turn bet is too much. I think there is a section in NLHTAP about why the turn bets should be a smaller percentage of the pot than flop bets (more information by know, smaller bets price out more draws, etc.).

That being said, I only bet half the pot on the turn. He called your 3/4 pot bet on the flop. That should tell you something. 1/2 the pot on the turn makes for a smaller river decision.

I just don't like the idea of making a monster pot on the turn with only 1 pair.

[earck]

After discussing this with a few freinds we came to the conclusion that he more than likely has 78s. Would explain the preflop call and the calls on the flop and turn. He knows that you aren't going to bet the river so he stuffs 6200 in hoping that you think you are committed.

[Ansky]

easy call

[SilverLining1]

As8s, 7s8s, Ax3x, and TT are the three hands you are worried about, IMO. I think that 7 out of 10 times you see that. He has no reason to check this river because, after your two large bets and his calls, he is justified to think you'd check too. He's losing value by not betting here.

I'm not sure if I bet half the pot yet, if he's on a monster draw (which he might be), he's now getting good price. If he has A10, I doubt he's getting away from it just yet. If he checks on the river, you can put in another bet into a bigger pot and get even more value.

Though, the merits for betting half the pot are definitely there and I'll consider them further. It's a good argument.

[Squirrel4Nutz]

I move all in. He has a busted spade draw.

[Toddy]

I think he's calling you with nothing looking to bluff the river. call.

[pulse]

He's got A-8s. Call anyway.