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#1
06-08-2006, 09:06 AM
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10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
Hello, hopefully someone will take the time to read this and comment.
Note: This is my first satelite-bubble. I am on regular MTT-bubbles fairly regularly. Yesterday I entered a freeroll satelite at a new pokersite. There was only 269 players, and the prizes were: 1-50th place : $10 1-10th place : buy in to a big mtt (worth $109) + buy in to another freeroll final with all places paid (at least $10) and a live tourney as 1st prize. 1st place: buy in to WSOP satelite, worth $800 So anyway I've been playing good, and got a good sized-stack most of the tourney. When we reach 20 players left, I am about 12th or 13th though`, as I had some bad luck. This is it: (blinds 500/1k) When we are 13 left, I get AK in MP, and raise 3x bb. everyone folds. two hands later i get QQ and the same thing happens. Then, UTG, I get TT. I have 20 000 stack, raise 3k, villain in MP puts me all in for 19 500. Now I am almost certain that I got him beat. Villain just doubled up and now he is making a bad move for sure. (or is he?) I have been following him and he has had quite a few lucky breaks, that's why he's still alive. But it's probably a coinflip. Is it wise to gamble here? My best guess for villain's hand is either two overcards or an underpair. I do think I could sneak in to the final FT by being super tight. But I call. And I can't settle my mind on wether or not it was the right thing to do. If I would avoid a coinflip early in a tourney, why not on a satelite bubble? What do you guys think about this? And generally satelite-bubble play. Note: There was no stack lower than 15k at the table when this happened. biggest stack is 60k+ I am thankful for any comments on this, feel free to berate me for making a stupid post if you need to, but instead of going around all day thinking this through I decided I might as well put it here. Peace out 
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#2
06-08-2006, 09:23 AM
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Re: 10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
With 2-10 getting $100 and 1st getting $900, I think it is most important to cash. The call is probably slightly cEV- from the big stack reraising you allin. You should fold.
Despite the extra prize for first, I would play this more or less like a satellite and try to sneak into the money.
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#3
06-08-2006, 11:33 AM
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Re: 10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
I agree w/ betgo, play this like a satellite and try to get ITM. You still have ~20BB to play with and you are about middle of the road, lay this down and wait for a better spot.
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#4
06-08-2006, 12:38 PM
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Re: 10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
Easy call, because your range for villain is any pair any broadway, you are ahead 60%.
this is not a satellite, this is a tournament with a funny payout structure. No one has a distinguished stack, it's CEV+ (given ur read). All the money is at the top, ~45%, play for 1st.
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#5
06-08-2006, 12:44 PM
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Re: 10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
[ QUOTE ]
Easy call, because your range for villain is any pair any broadway, you are ahead 60%. this is not a satellite, this is a tournament with a funny payout structure. No one has a distinguished stack, it's CEV+ (given ur read). All the money is at the top, ~45%, play for 1st. [/ QUOTE ] I don't think villain reraises allin near the bubble with any pair or any broadway cards. I am not sure TT is ahead of his range. The structure is not entirely like a satellite. However, with a medium to short stack, your priority should be on cashing at this point.
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#6
06-08-2006, 12:57 PM
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Re: 10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
Were you there? Hero's read is that he's ahead. He's way ahead if villain's range includes many underpairs. Hero has clearly stated that villain is very loose. The worst thing to do to a player is make them second guess their read because YOU see monsters under the bed.
With hero's read this is a fold in a satellite, but this is not a satellite. This is a tournament with ~60% of the prize pool remaining going to the top 3 spots, or 45% going to 1st. Focusing on 10th is just incorrect.
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#8
06-08-2006, 01:03 PM
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Re: 10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
[ QUOTE ]
Were you there? Hero's read is that he's ahead. He's way ahead if villain's range includes many underpairs. Hero has clearly stated that villain is very loose. The worst thing to do to a player is make them second guess their read because YOU see monsters under the bed. With hero's read this is a fold in a satellite, but this is not a satellite. This is a tournament with ~60% of the prize pool remaining going to the top 3 spots, or 45% going to 1st. Focusing on 10th is just incorrect. [/ QUOTE ] I think villain's read is optimistic. Here half the pool is split evenly between 2-10th and the other half goes to first. I also think it is optimistic to make an approximately even gamble for all your chips at this point when doubling up does not give you that geat a shot at first.
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#9
06-08-2006, 01:19 PM
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Re: 10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Were you there? Hero's read is that he's ahead. He's way ahead if villain's range includes many underpairs. Hero has clearly stated that villain is very loose. The worst thing to do to a player is make them second guess their read because YOU see monsters under the bed. With hero's read this is a fold in a satellite, but this is not a satellite. This is a tournament with ~60% of the prize pool remaining going to the top 3 spots, or 45% going to 1st. Focusing on 10th is just incorrect. [/ QUOTE ] I think villain's read is optimistic. Here half the pool is split evenly between 2-10th and the other half goes to first. I also think it is optimistic to make an approximately even gamble for all your chips at this point when doubling up does not give you that geat a shot at first. [/ QUOTE ] 10th = 2nd
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#10
06-08-2006, 01:47 PM
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Re: 10-man paid satelite bubble: Was this suicide?
[ QUOTE ]
Now I am almost certain that I got him beat. Villain just doubled up and now he is making a bad move for sure. (or is he?) I have been following him and he has had quite a few lucky breaks, that's why he's still alive. But it's probably a coinflip. Is it wise to gamble here? My best guess for villain's hand is either two overcards or an underpair. [/ QUOTE ] Hero's read is that he is ahead, but there are many coinflips in villains range. His core question is should he gamble. Your estimate (because it's not a read), that hero is behind, is unlikely to be as good as his read. Hero's equity in 1st goes from ~$34 to $80 if he doubles up. His equity in placing goes from ~$42 to at least $75 (my estimate). The overlay has a substantial effect. Assumptions: there is no SB for math simplicity Hero has 17K if he folds Avg stack is 20K 20 players. Equity in 1st is approx chip %.
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