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#31
06-16-2006, 08:55 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
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[ QUOTE ] In HAND 2, peeling with the intention of folding unimproved on the turn is certainly a mistake. Cartman [/ QUOTE ] Hmmm, my math said differently. Did you find something wrong? [/ QUOTE ] Really the only way to get a good estimate is to include every turn/river card contingency. For instance, "we turn top pair Aces" is too broad. It must be broken down into "we turn top pair Aces, it is ahead, and it doesnt get passed on the river", "we turn top pair Aces and it is ahead and it does get passed on the river", "we turn top pair Aces and it is behind and we river him", and "we turn top pair Aces and it is behind and we don't river him", etc. The main problem with your estimates is that you either ommitted or substantially underestimated the damage done when we improve and lose. 
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#32
06-17-2006, 04:53 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
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[ QUOTE ] In HAND 2, peeling with the intention of folding unimproved on the turn is certainly a mistake. Cartman [/ QUOTE ] The main problem with your estimates is that you either ommitted or substantially underestimated the damage done when we improve and lose. [/ QUOTE ] Then the number in question is 12.5 BB I assigned when you spike an ace. (13.5 BB with deductions for when we improve and lose, perhaps it wasn't enough of a deduction). I made this estimate hastily, so I can believe that the real number is as low as 10.5. I'd be very surprised if it's lower than that when you enumerate all the contingencies. The problem with enumerating all the contingencies is there are always more. What if a non-ace scare card on the turn freezes him? In which case I'm still happy with my standard line of folding the turn unimproved. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]
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#33
06-17-2006, 06:23 PM
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Re: Two stoxtrader hands
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What if a non-ace scare card on the turn freezes him? [/ QUOTE ] I dont try to enumerate and assign probabilities to every possibly way the betting can unfold as the minutia tends to get counterproductive at that point. But I do enumerate the turn/river card sequences and estimate how much we will win/lose on average with each of them.
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