Early picks for 12/15/06

[BarryLyndon]

Recap:

Last night, I did well; I picked SA against NO, which I felt was +EV for many of the reasons posted by AlecJB on a separate post. I chose Charlotte over Orlando, which I felt strongly about because: 1. despite their losses, Charlotte's play has become increasingly strong as of yet; 2. Okafor would negate Howard; 3. Who the hell else did Orlando have to beat Charlotte?

btw, David Stern said that in two years, Charlotte will be one of the best teams in the league. I wholeheartedly agree. There was this idiotic article in ESPN.com about how Morrison has some [censored] PER that's really low and he's been a disappointment. However, Morrison can shoot the rock and he's capable of creating his own shot. Also, he looks willing to learn / play with tenacity every night. He'll, at the very least, be a great 6th man off the bench.

I skipped out GS/Hou because I had no [censored] clue what would happen, save for that Yao Ming would have a big night. If you asked me whether Houston would squeak one out or whether GS would win by 8, I would be at a loss.

Tonight's tentative picks (90% certain, but open for argument for the next couple of hours):

1. NJ v. Toronto (-2.5): At some point or another, treating NJ like a 45 win team for a string of games is going to be +EV, and I think present circumstances dictate that I do it here. Toronto is still missing Bosh. Yes, they beat Orlando, but Orlando has been terrible the last several games. I'm not that worried about TJ Ford and VC is on a tear. Kristic is starting to come to form and Lawrence Frank should prepare well for Bargani (to which Mikey Moore should do a decent job defending).

2. Nuggets (-3.5) v. Boston): I guess that odds makers are confused about the Nuggets. Yes, the Nuggets just got blown out by Washington. But Washington is a 43ish win team that had the firepower to blow Denver out of the water. Denver should play confidently against a weak Boston team and win by 8 or 9.

3. Clippers v. Blazers (-2): The Clippers are not a bad team. They just can't perform against the Western Conference Superstars. They can't beat SA and they can't beat Utah because those teams are championship contenders. Against mediocre competition, however, the Clippers should do fine. I expect Brand do do well against Randolph in that he has the size and athleticism to negate him. The Clippers are coming off a bad loss against Utah and should look to adjust well against an inferior Portland team.

4. Warriors (+10) v. Phoenix: This is my wildcard game. The Warriors just won against Houston. They just played last night. They should be tired, but not as tired as Phoenix, who hasn't had an appropriate rest since god knows when. Phoenix outmatches the Warriors on the inside, but the Warriors should insist on playing Phoenix in an uptempo shootout. Phoenix will probably insist on this first, as any chance they have for a track meet is they take with joy. That could spell disaster for them tonight.

The Warriors are confident after beating a tough defensive team last night in Houston. Don Nelson should be most comfortable coaching against Phoenix tonight.

5. Pacers v. Knicks (-7): I'll take the Pacers, they match up extremely well against NY and at home. Carlisle is an awfully smart coach and could give Curry some more trouble than he's had in recent weeks.

[Queensgrad]

Just have a few thoughts....

[ QUOTE ]

Tonight's tentative picks (90% certain, but open for argument for the next couple of hours):

1. NJ v. Toronto (-2.5): At some point or another, treating NJ like a 45 win team for a string of games is going to be +EV, and I think present circumstances dictate that I do it here. Toronto is still missing Bosh. Yes, they beat Orlando, but Orlando has been terrible the last several games. I'm not that worried about TJ Ford and VC is on a tear. Kristic is starting to come to form and Lawrence Frank should prepare well for Bargani (to which Mikey Moore should do a decent job defending).
you cant underestimate torontos hatred for carter, the fans will boo him relentlessly. is this going to motivate him to play well? i think so, he mails it in so often it takes something like this to get a good performance out of him. Kid is too big for TJ, domination.
2. Nuggets (-3.5) v. Boston): agree
3. Clippers v. Blazers (-2): The Clippers are not a bad team. They just can't perform against the Western Conference Superstars. They can't beat SA and they can't beat Utah because those teams are championship contenders. Against mediocre competition, however, the Clippers should do fine. I expect Brand do do well against Randolph in that he has the size and athleticism to negate him. The Clippers are coming off a bad loss against Utah and should look to adjust well against an inferior Portland team.
did you see boozer look like Karl Malone vs the CLIPS inside in the last game? Zach is better than boozer when he brings it.
5. Pacers v. Knicks (-7): I'll take the Pacers, they match up extremely well against NY and at home. Carlisle is an awfully smart coach and could give Curry some more trouble than he's had in recent weeks.agree

[/ QUOTE ]

[BarryLyndon]

fwiw, Brand had to worry about peripheral issues against Utah, like the other beasts hanging around the paint - Kirilenko, Okur, Williams slashing into the lane, Harpring (a huge guard). That and Boozer is shooting 56% this year. Randolph 46%. And yeah, Randolph is scoring 3 points more than Boozer, but Randolph doesn't have to share scoring responsibilities nearly as much as Boozer does. Boozer is by far a more frightening prospect than Randolph is, and if anything, playing Boozer a couple of nights before should be nice preparation for Brand tonight. I expect a big game out of him.

Randolph is having a real nice year as the go to guy, but the last three games, Randolph hasn't had to deal with any kind of front court threats. I'm not saying Brand is spectacular (though he is starting to score more consistently), but he will be Randolph's biggest test in a while. Not to mention, (sigh), Kaman should put some kind of a body on Randolph from time to time.

I'm worried about this game for rjp's considerations - what the hell are Cassell and Maggette going to do? I think that if one of these two players come to play, the Clippers should win.

IMO, it's my weakest of the five selections.

[alecb]

Agreed and another problem -- the Clippers are a TERRIBLE road team. 1-7 on the road. Even playing a terrible team like the Blazers....

[BarryLyndon]

Gonna take out Clips and substitute Bulls v. Bucks (Bulls - 7). Clips/Blazers is too marginal for reasons stated.

[BarryLyndon]

Final picks (guh!):

1. Nets over Raptors (-3): Bosh is really unlikely to play. Jeffersons out, but I don't really care that much. Mikey Moore has been playing very well, so him + kristic should be able to handle the load on the inside. Raptors rebounding is actually WORSE than the Nets, which should mean that the Nets can play small ball + get boards, and that should translate to a win.

2. Nuggets v. Celtics (-3): Same reasons already stated.

3. Pacers v. Knicks (-6.5): Same reasons.

4. Warriors v. Phoenix (+12): The Suns just beat the Heat...by 10. Now the spread is 12. Reasons stated already.

Barry's sweet [censored] progressive parlay of the week:

All games listed above +:

1. Wizards -11 v. Heat: Wizards firepower should cripple Heat.

2. Bulls (-7) v. Bucks: I almost took this pic on an indie basis.

3. Clippers (-2.5) v. Blazers: Same as 2.

Figured I'd put 2. and 3. to increase my overall expectation on the parlay.



Muuuuuwahahahahaha.

[mike l.]

i settled on utah -7 and lakers -4. something about the nuggets line worries me away from it, too obvious.

[BarryLyndon]

[ QUOTE ]
i settled on utah -7 and lakers -4. something about the nuggets line worries me away from it, too obvious.

[/ QUOTE ].

A - 3 spread isn't that obvious, IMO. I do see your point, however. My response:

I think that in those situations where "obviousness" come into play, you have to question what the word "obvious" means. Most of this is stastical. Like, that Denver just got whalloped by Washington and Boston is one a three game winning streak. That Denver is playing at Boston, where "historially," Boston has a good record against the Nuggets. Both aren't THAT important as is that Denver is a strong and smart enough team to mend themselves after losing to a hot Wizards team.