KJ river decision

NSchandler · #1 06-27-2006, 09:06 PM

Villain is unknown.

FWIW, opponent who dropped on turn appears to be a TAG over 20 hands.

PokerStars 2/4 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP with J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
1 fold, Hero raises, 1 fold, Button calls, 1 fold, BB calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, Button calls, BB calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, BB folds.

River: (8.25 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)

B/f or c/c?

Sorry, know this is a simple one.

Caddy_4_Life · #2 06-27-2006, 09:10 PM

I see value in a bet/fold.

-Caddy

Nfinity · #3 06-27-2006, 10:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I see value in a bet/fold.

-Caddy

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a villian who will Coldcall 2 bets on a 3-flush flop either has a strong draw to the A, K or maybe the Q, or he has a strong hand like trips or 2 pair but is scared by the aggression on the Flop. I think a bet here on the River is getting called by a lot of hands that beat you, but by very few that you actually beat.I believe a Check-Call is in order on the off chance you induce a bluff from those busted draws.

MacGuyV · #4 06-27-2006, 10:11 PM

Hero raised the flop and bet the turn in a 3handed pot. I don't see him bluffing much.

Caddy_4_Life · #5 06-27-2006, 11:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I see value in a bet/fold.

-Caddy

[/ QUOTE ]

I think a villian who will Coldcall 2 bets on a 3-flush flop either has a strong draw to the A, K or maybe the Q, or he has a strong hand like trips or 2 pair but is scared by the aggression on the Flop. I think a bet here on the River is getting called by a lot of hands that beat you, but by very few that you actually beat.I believe a Check-Call is in order on the off chance you induce a bluff from those busted draws.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. Mainly because I read the river wrong! Because of the blank river action I thought Hero was still up against BB, not Button and BB had bet to him. Given that Hero is OOP on the river, I think a c/c is in order. I do think it's close but the definitive difference is picking up an extra BB those times Villain is bluffing with his missed draw thinking you were on the same.

-Caddy

Nfinity · #6 06-28-2006, 07:59 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero raised the flop and bet the turn in a 3handed pot. I don't see him bluffing much.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree wholeheartedly. I guess the way I conveyed my opinion was a little vague. I'll try a better way.

What's calling that we beat here? It seems that all a bet does here is give us a chance to lose it without a showdown. When villian has a hand that is a lot better he is raising, he is calling with some better hands fearing the strength you indicated, and the hands you are ahead of will likely fold given that river card.

Villian is BB, so if he bets when we check to him I can give him credit for some weaker Jacks, and maybe a K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]7o or a K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]6o making this a profitable call overall. However if villian wasn't in a blind position, I might be tempted to check/fold in certain read-dependant situations. Like you said, It would be very hard for villian to bluff this river.

ninenine_zoe · #7 06-28-2006, 12:21 PM

[ QUOTE ]
...Villian is BB, ...

[/ QUOTE ]
villain is button and coldcalled preflop. its hard to put a taggish lookin villain on a hand here.
i like a check to induce bluffs from weaker jacks or busted draws. i dont think im good very often after that rivercard when villain bets.

Nfinity · #8 06-28-2006, 12:33 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...Villian is BB, ...

[/ QUOTE ]
villain is button and coldcalled preflop. its hard to put a taggish lookin villain on a hand here.
i like a check to induce bluffs from weaker jacks or busted draws. i dont think im good very often after that rivercard when villain bets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yikes I must have misread it the second time through. Other than making random Khxo wholly unlikely, it doesn't change much of what I said, though.

MacGuyV · #9 06-28-2006, 12:34 PM

Yeah it's a tough spot. If there was a better chance he might check behind better hands, a check would probably be ok, but he'd have to be pretty dumb not to bet just about everything that beats us on the end. So I think it's better to bet even though we will get called by some better hands. When in doubt, I chose being the value-bettor rather than being valuebet.

Nfinity · #10 06-28-2006, 12:53 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah it's a tough spot. If there was a better chance he might check behind better hands, a check would probably be ok, but he'd have to be pretty dumb not to bet just about everything that beats us on the end. So I think it's better to bet even though we will get called by some better hands. When in doubt, I chose being the value-bettor rather than being valuebet.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't mean to be the constant antagonist but you must explain.

When we bet here are we hoping that better hands will fold? I can come to terms with that in some situations, but I'm not strongly sold on it.

OR

Are we hoping that a worse hand will call? If so, what do you believe will call given that river card that might not stand a chance of betting if we just checked. We already discussed how unlikely we are to get bluffed on the river here, but I think the chances of being looked up by K-hgh are far lower.