Value bet second pair on river BvB? 50NL

[GiantBuddha]

Villain is 30/10/0.8
Is there value here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($50.95)
UTG ($27.50)
UTG+1 ($65.20)
MP1 ($73.80)
MP2 ($25.20)
MP3 ($97.65)
CO ($51.80)
Button ($19.35)
Hero ($61.40)

Preflop: Hero is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">7 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, BB calls $3.

Turn: ($10) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, BB checks.

River: ($10) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

[KurtSF]

Yes, i think b/f is your best line.

My guess is you are behind most hands he will bet if checked to. I'd guess that range is: flush, Kx, complete air. With a 0.8 AF I think you'd do better against the range he'd call with: any pair, flush.

And with that low AF you can easily fold to any raise.

I guess the question is how often he will steal with air. Again, the low AF is the key to all of this to me, as it reduces the likelihood of that scenario IMHO.

[Mike Kelley]

IDK it seems like these donkey's check the turn after they make their flush every time. I'm probably checking it down in this situation. I don't see us getting called by worse and we do have some showdown value.

[MrTynKyn]

Is profitable to raise OOP against a 30/10 ???? most of the time c-bet wont work.

[GiantBuddha]

[ QUOTE ]
Is profitable to raise OOP against a 30/10 ???? most of the time c-bet wont work.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're a lot better than two random cards here. If we limp his preflop AF suggests he might raise, but his postflop AF suggests that if he calls our PFR he's likely to let us get there when we're behind. I'd much rather play OOP vs. a passive player than an aggressive one, of course. All that said, blind vs. blind is unquestionably the weakest area of my game.

[Kos13]

[ QUOTE ]
IDK it seems like these donkey's check the turn after they make their flush every time. I'm probably checking it down in this situation. I don't see us getting called by worse and we do have some showdown value.

[/ QUOTE ]

We're OOP, so we're not guaranteed to get to a showdown for free.

Bet $6ish...fold to any raise.

[Johnes Benjamin]

BvB is something I need to work on as well, and I found this to be a very interesting post, as it is one of those seemingly marginal situations that can really make a difference in the long run.
I would agree that b/f is the best line, with a pretty weak bet. I doubt he's calling anything substantial, nor do you really want to commit anything substantial, but a $5 bet should get looked up by PP and such enough to make it +ev.

On a related note, I used to be afraid of making these weak value bets too much b/c I thought people would raise me with air, or at least see it as a bet that obv. wants to get called, but I've found that if your opponent is not very good they will not look much past whether their hand is worth the amount, ie 88 is worth calling $4-6 on river here.
Sometimes even A5 or something, mostly b/c they are curious.