i has a bottom set, board started bad and got worse - 140 deep

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Nick,
this all comes down to experience with what we view as "this kind of player," but in my experience anyway this is very often an overpair, which a guy like this generally views as the nuts.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree, and it's not worth much arguing about it. Imo his stop and go more often is a sign his hand improved on the turn, rather than turning his PP into a bluffcatcher, alternatively bluff (ie turning his flopped overpair into [censored]). Especially given that his AF his so low.

[Bulletproof Monk]

my point would be that $15 less and the turn becomes a much easier fold, or $15 more and the turn becomes an insta-call given the $30 difference (ie $15 more/less in your stack and $15 more/less in the pot)

to noahsd - a scare card comes a lot of the time tho, given this board. arent we considering any 3, 8 or club the same when faced with a shove? (maybe not i guess)

[Bulletproof Monk]

actually $15 more on the flop and we have a $45 difference on the turn....

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
general strategy post:

if we are planning to fold to a turn shove on a scarecard turn, isnt our flopraise about the most perfectly wrong size?

[/ QUOTE ]
To some extent I agree. If we're raising to $99 on the flop planning to pay off a push on a turn club we're making it correct for him to call with a fd. If we're intending to stack off when the flush hits I'd prefer raising more. I'm not suggesting stacking off here though so I don't mind raising a few dollars less and fold in this situation.

Edit: I don't mind this exact flop re-raise either planning to fold to this push...

[Bulletproof Monk]

^- the above post is an eloquent version of my thoughts heh

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
^- the above post is an eloquent version of my thoughts heh

[/ QUOTE ]
Yeah, you're clever I can see. We need to know his range isn't only fd/oesd though and might be some kind of pair etc so we should not only make a raise to make the turn decision easy when a draw hits, but also maximize our value vs let's say 99. I don't really think he'll play his overpairs much different depending on whether we raise to 88 or 110 so I think we should aim making our raise vs a draw best.

[Spechel EDD]

ughhhhhhhhh i expect 66/77 here like always

[all_in_lam]

fold i dont think we have 31% equity. we are up against a better hand mainly a fluhs like 90% of the time (which is <25% equity)

[keikiwai]

i called

the main reason i called was that he pushed so fast, i figured if he had a flush he would at least pause and think what hands i call w/ or pause and think whether a check raise has any merit.... if he had a str8 i figured he would also pause

any way he flipped over J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] river is T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and MHIG

what i was trying to gauge was how important was his INSTA shove, which was the main reason i called... since no one talked about it, i figure it wasn't important or it was a you gotta have been there type of thing

[Hince]

Jesus Christ... this is an over pair waaaaay more often then a higher set. It's almost never a flush, although it could be a straight. This looks like a guy who doesn't have a fn clue what he is doing.