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#1
07-01-2007, 07:51 PM
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help settle a bet
Every year my friends and I hold a 2 on 2 basketball tournament. Teams are randomly pulled from a hat, one person at a time. What is the probability that two people predict beforehand that they will be drawn as partners and then it actually happens? Seems pretty simple to me but I have received varying answers to this and I was wondering what the answer is. Thanks for your help.
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#2
07-01-2007, 08:33 PM
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Re: help settle a bet
If there at n players, there is an equal probability of player A getting matched with each of the n-1 possible partners, so the probability of each is 1/(n-1). This includes the specified partner player B.
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#3
07-01-2007, 10:03 PM
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Re: help settle a bet
[ QUOTE ]
If there at n players, there is an equal probability of player A getting matched with each of the n-1 possible partners, so the probability of each is 1/(n-1). This includes the specified partner player B. [/ QUOTE ] So what would be the odds of this happening then? I'm guessing 1 in 29 but that doesn't seem right. Thanks for your help
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#4
07-02-2007, 12:34 AM
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Re: help settle a bet
The prediction has nothing to do with it. Pzhon's answer is the correct one and the exact odds depends upon how many teams are going to play, which you neglected to tell us.
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#7
07-02-2007, 10:06 PM
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Re: help settle a bet
[ QUOTE ]
So what would be the odds of this happening then? I'm guessing 1 in 29 but that doesn't seem right. Thanks for your help [/ QUOTE ] Think of it this way. Each of the players wears a number from 1 to 30. The guy making the prediction is number 30. He has to predict a number from 1 to 29 for his partner. What's the chance he guesses the right number?
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#8
07-03-2007, 01:53 PM
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Re: help settle a bet
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] If there at n players, there is an equal probability of player A getting matched with each of the n-1 possible partners, so the probability of each is 1/(n-1). This includes the specified partner player B. [/ QUOTE ] So what would be the odds of this happening then? I'm guessing 1 in 29 but that doesn't seem right. Thanks for your help [/ QUOTE ] Odds are 28:1. Chance is 1 in 29. People confuse odds and chance all the time, as you did in your post, but it pays to be precise.
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