Poker math quiz: evaluate this hand.

[orlov]

Assuming his flop check raise means I have atleast a pair and his vpip of 70 I guess we could assume following range on the flop:

AJ-J7
22-TT

I excluded lower jacks because his vpip doesnt mean he has the same high vpip for a raise. JJ/TT are excluded as pairs as they are in his ranging raise...

Stricly going with his bets meaning i have atleast a pair, nothing changes on the turn...

thus against that range we have an equity of

Board: 2c 7d Jd Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.934% 33.93% 00.00% 1299 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 66.066% 66.07% 00.00% 2529 0.00 { TT-22, J7s+, J7o+ }

Thus we should call the turn for sure.

Flop looks a bit different:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.753% 24.75% 00.00% 22790 0.00 { AsKd }
Hand 1: 75.247% 75.25% 00.00% 69280 0.00 { TT-22, J7s+, J7o+ }

But we are still getting good odds. Still opting towards a fold.

Issues with this however are that we dont know what check minraises mean and that we dont know with what he calls preflop raises, he might limp junk and fold it preflop, possibly shifting his range upwards to mayb j10+.

And he probably wont c/r flop with 33-66 and continue with them on the turn, making this more and more a fold.