Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process?

[ocklind]

[ QUOTE ]
No offense, but when some guy has an aggression factor that is 4.5 he is way way more likely he is either c/f this turn or c/r it.

This is a really trashy board to c/r if you are as tight as you say you are. I'd assume he was overplaying a hand that wanted a cheap showdown and said F* it when you bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

u cant really assume this :P it would equal some kinda tilt and that was not me impression of him atm

[john kane]

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I dont really fancy a 3b here, since he often will call a 3b and then has me crushed! me not like, QJs is kinda like 65s, I'd rather see a flop and play him in pos, right? U still disagree here?

[/ QUOTE ]

if you think he'll call then im less inclined to 3bet, but then if your only 3betting better hands your likely making your 3bet range too tight and players will fold (i would think if there were sensible)

im not a fan of calling someone elses raise pf tbh, as i mentioned kills your strongest range and keeps his range wide. trying to play someone in position is only good if you can [censored] with their head and have a wide range, which i dont think you can do regularly by calling their raise pf. im probs going way overboard here.

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You advocate betting also KJ, AJ, QT? Or you think I should add JTs and TT also?

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tbh i dont want to sound like im playing some wannabe amazing poker player style, but i genuinely will base it on recent history. i love getting into exchanges with anyone at the tables (except players who are very good) and so what ill bet with, be it in this hand JK, TT, will completely depend on what i expect him to do, how much i want to lag up my image or tag up my image based on whether my bluffs are working, whether i feel players are starting to makes plays back at me etc.

[ocklind]

[ QUOTE ]
if you think he'll call then im less inclined to 3bet, but then if your only 3betting better hands your likely making your 3bet range too tight and players will fold (i would think if there were sensible)

im not a fan of calling someone elses raise pf tbh, as i mentioned kills your strongest range and keeps his range wide. trying to play someone in position is only good if you can [censored] with their head and have a wide range, which i dont think you can do regularly by calling their raise pf. im probs going way overboard here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's better to 3-bet him here w/ A3s-ish, and 76s-ish to mix it up. I've watched cts play some at CR and there he said a very clever thing, its better to 3bet the hands that play not so good post flop, like A3 and 76s(that doesnt hit a good flop that often) than a hand that plays better on the flop, for eg QJs. And I also call him with all SCs, all pairs and some KQs, QJs etc, so I think he's gotta have a hard time putting me on a hand. And yes, I can screw with him a lot on the flop when I whiff, bcuz of position.

[ QUOTE ]
tbh i dont want to sound like im playing some wannabe amazing poker player style, but i genuinely will base it on recent history. i love getting into exchanges with anyone at the tables (except players who are very good) and so what ill bet with, be it in this hand JK, TT, will completely depend on what i expect him to do, how much i want to lag up my image or tag up my image based on whether my bluffs are working, whether i feel players are starting to makes plays back at me etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Maybe I forgot to mention that we had no real history. So whats ur play without hist?

[LouisCyphre]

(I like your OP because I think we need more detailed analysis like this in this forum.)

How does villain perceive you? Could he "count" on you betting the turn?
Because villain can't like it if it goes check-check on the turn if he has decent hand. There are players who are more likely to check than to bet here if they have QT/JT/T9/TT/KJ/98/76. Unless he has a straight or a very weak hand he can't feel good about giving a free card.

[ocklind]

Ty LouisCyphre, I will try to post some more longer hand analysis in the future now, since it generates some good and very insightful discussions.

#The Hand

I think that because he's perceived as tight, he can't be expecting me betting That many hands. As I said, I think he will assume I check some jacks behind, TT and even QT.

Why is that? Well because he gotta realise himself that it looks kinda suspicous when he checks the turn here. He either has a monster, or air (motivated in the OP). In neither situations should I bet light here, imo.

But now I've come to change my mind since so many has pointed out that my hand becomes to defined if I do not bet here, or could be so, I have to give up some information by not betting a lot of hands?

So my question is really, what hands do I add and why?

[john kane]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's better to 3-bet him here w/ A3s-ish, and 76s-ish to mix it up. I've watched cts play some at CR and there he said a very clever thing, its better to 3bet the hands that play not so good post flop, like A3 and 76s(that doesnt hit a good flop that often) than a hand that plays better on the flop, for eg QJs.

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah i agree with the 3betting trash is sometimes better than 3betting with hands that if called your could be dominated, like JQs vs his AQ/QK etc. but at same time my initial decision of whether to 3bet will depend more on whether ive 3bet in the last few hands or not. if i have, then i won't 3bet anything other than decent hands, if i haven't, and the raise is not a nit nor a very good tag then ill happily 3bet with whatever cards i have. also means in the first ten hands or so if i do this then, get called pf, cbet flop and the guy folds, when i then flip over 95off it helps my image (although more recently ive been preferring not to show these and only show 3barrels).

so to sum up that, for me although my hole cards will be a factor as to whether i fold/call/3bet, whether ive done so in the last 10 or so hands, and who the opponent is will be the main factors.

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Maybe I forgot to mention that we had no real history. So whats ur play without hist?

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will depend a bit if there is a fish i recognise on the table, as then i want to lag up my image as much as possible, look like the crazy guy. if no fish, then ill just base this on his stats, AF of 4.5 im shoving this no doubt, if he has AF of less than 2 then it becomes tougher decision imo.

[ocklind]

I think that you all seem to underestimate a player only becuase of his stats. 4.5 in turn AF means that he's very aggressive on the turn, not a complete maniac, bluffing in really bad spots, right? Or does it mean exactly that?

[punter11235]

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if he’s a good player, we should fold this, right? I'd love to hear your thoughts please.

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As I like your thought process and all I think this conclusion is wrong.
Better one would be :
"if he is tight and solid player as I think he is the fold is correct". If he is really "good" you cant assume he is playing in such a predictable way that his range is top 2 pair + here and if he is good he may guess that you would fold almost everything in that spot so he could c/r you with air often.

Every time you make a statement like "if he is a good player he has something almost always here" there is something wrong with one of the two assumptions.

[ocklind]

[ QUOTE ]
As I like your thought process and all I think this conclusion is wrong.
Better one would be :
"if he is tight and solid player as I think he is the fold is correct". If he is really "good" you cant assume he is playing in such a predictable way that his range is top 2 pair + here and if he is good he may guess that you would fold almost everything in that spot so he could c/r you with air often.

Every time you make a statement like "if he is a good player he has something almost always here" there is something wrong with one of the two assumptions.

[/ QUOTE ]

"if he’s a good player, we should fold this, right?"

By this I mean that he prolly can put us on a big hand, that will call his C/R and therefore only do it with legit hands. So the "good" player should assume you dont get many hands to fold on the turn and therefore wont bluff here. U agree?

[KeanuReaver]

a little bit of a lack of continuity in your pf and turn reads. T8 and KT aren't in your initial pf reads (and probably rightly so for a 17/13 player UTG+1) but you made your turn decision based somewhat on him having those hands.

as for analysis of his turn aggro, i think it means if anything he's not going to be taking many c/c lines at all. in other words, IF he checks this turn with AA KK or AQ, he does it with intentions of raising or folding (most likely a raise). whether or not he checks those hands in the first place i suppose is up for debate.