Percentage of time raiser flops a good hand

[Mark1808]

I am trying to figure out the optimal percentage of time I should be bluff raising a flop against an opponent with say a 16% PF raise percentage and 80% continuation bettor. So I am trying to calculate how often someone who raises X% of hands figures to flop top pair or better or a strong draw? I'm thinking I need to take each individual hand in their range and calculate each percentage and then average them. That seems very time consuming! Any general rules of thumb?

[sixhigh]

Wouldn't it be of very much more use to have board for those considerations? I.e. it's huge difference if the board is Axx or 842.
But in general it's probably not wrong to assume he hits a somewhat reasonable hand (Pair+) 35% of the time.

[punter11235]

In general check-raise bluff is profitable on every flop if he folds everything worse than top pair. Even big checkraise. If he starts calling any pair checkraise starts sucking. If you post specific board I can answer how often opponent has something with diffrent reasonable ranges. In general that question has no asnwer.

[RobertJohn]

Let's say you raise the button and the BB defends with something like:

TT-22,AQs-A8s,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,65s,54s,A7o+,KTo +,QJo,JTo

What about these flops:

1) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

2) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

3)QJ5r

4) 763r

5) A95r

[punter11235]

The answer will be in such a format taht you need to add all categories above to any given one to see full answers. That means that in first example top pair+ is flopped in 5.9% + 7.6%. 7.6% means toppair+ but below two pair.
[ QUOTE ]
1) 775

[/ QUOTE ]

Two pair or better : 5.9%
Top pair or better : 7.6%
Low pair or better 12.6%
Any draw : 5.9% without pair+

[ QUOTE ]
Td8s4h

[/ QUOTE ]

two pair+ 3.9%
top pair+ 18.4%
any pair+ 25% (reminder: that means that he flops any pair or better 25%+18.4%+3.9% of all cases)
Any draw without pair+ 1.8%
Overall : 49.1% he has "something"

3)QJ5r

two pair+ 5.3%
top pair+ 12%
any pair: 40%
draws without pair : 8.9%
Overall : in 66.2% of all acses he has something (this is without gutshots, with gutshots its 76.9%)

4) 763r

2pair+ 6.2%
toppair+ 12.4%
any pair+ 8.7%
any draw without pair 1.7%

overall : 28.9% of all cases he has "something"

5)A95r

twopair+ 6.8%
toppair+ 25.8%
any pair+ 25.8%
any draw without pair 0%
overall : in 59.4% of all cases he has "something".

I hope it answers your question.
I am developing software which will answer any math question related to poker you can ever imagine. For now its not avaialble for wide public but I can answer any questions you may have [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]