($16): Tough bubble decision with 88

[Pocketbear]

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t4345)
Button (t3620)
SB (t2850)
Hero (t2685)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t800</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, <font color="gray">SB folds</font>, Hero?

Button is sitting out and the villain is a decent player - nothing stupid, nothing out of line yet. Never minraised before, so this is very likely a trap.

Would you fold or push here?

[DevinLake]

I'd fold. Being even with the other short stack, I'm not really looking for a coinflip here. Especially with the button sitting out.

[Pocketbear]

What would your pushing range be here?

[DevinLake]

Something like TT+, AQs+, AKo

Edit: but with your read that he's never mr before, I might even be tighter.

[ace93rd]

[ QUOTE ]
What would your pushing range be here?

[/ QUOTE ]
either he's inducing a push by you in which case he has monster, or he can have total air and trying to not invest allot and take down blinds by representing a monster...therefore his range is as wide as they come.
So theoretically i would look at it like this...
70% monster with range of QQ+
30% any two as range (we can break this down further below as....
15% total air which he will fold to your push
15% 66+,KTs+ which is will call your push do to pot odds)

anyeone care to run the math on this. and do assumptions seem appropriate as generality considering stack and chips

[dipstikdave]

i don't think the minraise means that much, but it looks like a fold anyway. i'd be pushing JJ+, AK+ probly.

[ace93rd]

also, just wondering if there is any good tool out there for assigning weights to different possible ranges and then having it calculate your EV. SNGPT isnt equipt to handle this sort of push/fold situation given the fact that someone else opened as opposed to you open pushing.

[durron597]

[ QUOTE ]
Something like TT+, AQs+, AKo

Edit: but with your read that he's never mr before, I might even be tighter.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is SO a 16 mang, you have FE here

it's probably close, i can see myself folding, stop and going, and shoving depending on my mood

[alanbrown]

I actually wrote something to do that. Not productized, but I wrote it to solve exactly this kind of problem. You're the first person I've heard about who's been curious about adding this dimension to SNGPT functionality.

[Kibby]

[ QUOTE ]
Button is sitting out

[/ QUOTE ]
I hate that. It always complicates my decisions a lot. Given that and your read, this should be a fold but I cry when I do it.