100NL 6-max: Straight on paired river. Value bet or no?

wax head · #1 03-05-2007, 09:29 AM

Only notable hand I've had with villain, he hasn't been at the table long: It was a limped pot, 3 runners to the river with him OOP. He check called a 3/4 pot bet on the flop w mid pair A kicker (backdoor nut flush draw). Has a flush draw on the turn he check calls another 3/4 pot bet, hits his flush on the river and open pushes for about 3/4 pot (he started with half a buyin).

I had a hard time deciding whether to value bet this river or not. He thought for a bit before the flop and turn calls, and instachecked the river. No stats.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($121)
UTG ($105)
Hero ($188.50)
SB ($125.25)

Preflop: Hero is Button with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $1, Hero raises to $5, 1 fold, BB calls $4, UTG folds.

Flop: ($11.50) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $8, BB calls $8.

Turn: ($27.50) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $26.15, BB calls $26.15.

River: ($79.80) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
BB checks, Hero ???

DanJ. · #2 03-05-2007, 09:36 AM

$50

AggJedi · #3 03-05-2007, 10:09 AM

Villian has about a pot sized bet left in his stack come the river, whatever hand he had before could have easily been counterfeited, betting inbetween 40 and 80 doesn't make much sense since 40 is half his stack, and 80 is all of it, so if he'd calla bet of 50, he'd probably call a bet of 80.

Personally i'd lean towards betting 40, since his hand very well may suck now that an overcard paired, but some players still have trouble letting go of hands like that, especially when getting 3 to 1.

TNUC · #4 03-05-2007, 10:31 AM

40 - 65 is fine

loosbastard · #5 03-05-2007, 12:37 PM

Ehh...I probably bet something smallish like $38. The turn and river are a couple of really scary cards for any hand you beat. I doubt he calls a shove w/ a worse hand often enough to be profitable.

Why am I thinking he has AQ here? I don't think I'd ever consider checking behind or folding to a raise...but something about his line really looks like AQ to me. Either that or a busted FD are the only 2 hands that make sense to me.

Results?

eigenvalue · #6 03-05-2007, 01:09 PM

I check behind on paired boards with straights or flushes and I think it saves me a lot of money in the long run.

sc000t · #7 03-05-2007, 01:32 PM

I'm def betting the river here once he checked. I think I'd put him all in too. If he's going to call 50, I think he'll call off the rest of his stack too. Obv if he missed a flush/and or straight draw he wont be calling either, and if he somehow has a fullhouse we're getting it all in anyway. Just push, if he called you down with Kx or AT, he'll def call a shove imo.

fitnessfreak · #8 03-05-2007, 01:36 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind on paired boards with straights or flushes and I think it saves me a lot of money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is VERY bad advice IMO.

I have never understood those players who when they hit a very strong hand always seem to find those "monsters under the bed" like in this case. This is how i assume their brains operate "wow, i dont have the nuts anymore and a fish has been calling my flop and turn bets. Better check behind because this guy who earlier rivered the nuts and open shoved is now looking for a checkraise with his full house!"...or something like that. Thinking like this will inevitably lead to a lot of missed value.

There is no strict rule in these situations. Spots like these will arise fairly often and they are very situational. It will often come down to what you know of your opponent, among other things. i am not advocating that you should always bet in these spots, but rather that you should try and analyse each individual situation as it arises, as you would any other decision when playing poker.

FWIW, i would definately bet this river. If he was willing to go for a runner runner flush earlier, then i dont see why he could not have Ax spades, AT or even a random king. I would probably bet $50, but i dont think a shove is horrible as i think he will almost surely pay you off with an ace, which he could very easily have based on his turn call.

ikestoys · #9 03-05-2007, 01:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind on paired boards with straights or flushes and I think it saves me a lot of money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

100% wrong sir, it is costing you money.

loosbastard · #10 03-05-2007, 02:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind on paired boards with straights or flushes and I think it loses me a lot of money in the long run.

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP.

I disagree w/ putting him in though. What hands do we beat that call an all-in here? The turn and river are very scary cards for a lot of hands. I think a smaller/more callable bet is in order here.