Live 20/40 game at borgata with dead kings

[rubixxcube]

Only relevant cards shown.

Cute girl(CG) Brings it in for full bet of $20: [XX]3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
85 Year old man reraises to $40 with [XX] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Dealt to hero [K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]]Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
Player behind me has [XX]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
So my kings are dead.

Reads:
Old Man(OM) is semi representing my kings. OM will normally raise on 3rd street with 3 Big cards, almost any pair, 3 of a suit etc... However his reraising range is almost always a medium to high pair.

CG bring in who brought it in for a full amount is somebody who i know very well who i in fact taught how to play stud somewhat and if i 3 bet she will not call me unless she has AA in the hole or rolled 3's so 99% sure she will fold to my 3 bet.

So......
Bring in brings it in for $20, OM who problably has a medium to high PP raise to $40 and I have concealed dead kings.

Whats my play and why?

[electrical]

Raise.

You would like to take the pot now (though from description of OM you will at least see 4th street), and barring that you need to find out if you are behind. Since CG is predictable and will fold (A3)3, for example, or (JJ)3, you would like her to go ahead and do that, and if OM is really just playing with three Broadway cards you'll have a significant edge because he can't pair Kings and out-kick you -- he has to pair an Ace, make a running two-pair hand or a straight.

I raise because CG will probably fold and you're in good shape against OM, who will probably call. If CG doesn't fold, you'll know how to play the rest of the hand.

[Andy B]

Pocket Aces is 1% of the chick's range? What else does she bring it in full with? An no chance that she'll call with a big three-flush?

I'm going to advocate a fold here, mostly so I can contradict the Urge Overkill fan-boy. Your hand is dead, which is bad. I also think that it is very likely that you're up against at least one pair of Aces. In particular, I think an old guy is very likely to have pocket Aces to make it two bets after a decent (I presume) player brings it in full. Maybe he'd do it with pocket Queens, but there are twice as many ways he can have Aces as there are ways he can have Queens, and I think he'd be less inclined to raise with the Queens. And there's some chance that the chick has Aces or a set, right? This looks like it's going to be expensive. I'd look for a better spot.

[pocketpared]

I dunno. Girl could be trying to take out the duplicated kings with a variety of hands. Her early position makes the play that much more believable. She may hold pocket 10-10 through Q-Q. Old man may be aware of this and have a decent enough hand to play back. I'd have a tough time laying down KK with a high 2 straight/flush with no apparent dead cards to it. If there were players yet to act behind me (we don't have this info) the action may induce more calls making the 2 straight/flush look even better. I'd be inclined to take one more card and if it isn't perfect fold to any strength. Maybe fold to 2 bets, depending on the pot size, even if it is perfect. Then again, maybe I'm biased because I've won more money with kings up than any other hand in 7CS. I defer to your 7CS experience and skill. If you're adamant, in the future I'll rethink my actions in this position.

[PoorLawyer]

[ QUOTE ]
Pocket Aces is 1% of the chick's range? What else does she bring it in full with? An no chance that she'll call with a big three-flush?

I'm going to advocate a fold here, mostly so I can contradict the Urge Overkill fan-boy. Your hand is dead, which is bad. I also think that it is very likely that you're up against at least one pair of Aces. In particular, I think an old guy is very likely to have pocket Aces to make it two bets after a decent (I presume) player brings it in full. Maybe he'd do it with pocket Queens, but there are twice as many ways he can have Aces as there are ways he can have Queens, and I think he'd be less inclined to raise with the Queens. And there's some chance that the chick has Aces or a set, right? This looks like it's going to be expensive. I'd look for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree and also think an additional argument for folding is that you can't improve without them knowing it. You stand to win a medium size pot if you improve by 5th or can lose a large one if you get stuck in a race against Aces with your dead Ks.

[electrical]

Automatically giving credit for Aces is silly. Bring-in can see that Kings are dead, as can the Old Man, which will make any pocket pair play stronger, making both their raising standards lower. At least it ought to.

I raise and hope to get it heads-up with the Old Guy. If that doesn't work then okay, I wasted a bet and I move on. Dead Kings is still better than your opponents figure to have, and if not, you'll find out right away.

[Brad1970]

I assume this is stud hi??

If so, in a situation like this I would pump it or dump it on third especially since you have some idea of both opponents tendencies. If you are reraised, I think you need to fold since your hand is so dead. How is the clubs situation? If clubs are live, it may give you a little extra incentive to get in there. But, at the end of the day, you have basically a dead hand & I would expect to get repopped by one or possibly both.

[rubixxcube]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pocket Aces is 1% of the chick's range? What else does she bring it in full with? An no chance that she'll call with a big three-flush?

I'm going to advocate a fold here, mostly so I can contradict the Urge Overkill fan-boy. Your hand is dead, which is bad. I also think that it is very likely that you're up against at least one pair of Aces. In particular, I think an old guy is very likely to have pocket Aces to make it two bets after a decent (I presume) player brings it in full. Maybe he'd do it with pocket Queens, but there are twice as many ways he can have Aces as there are ways he can have Queens, and I think he'd be less inclined to raise with the Queens. And there's some chance that the chick has Aces or a set, right? This looks like it's going to be expensive. I'd look for a better spot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree and also think an additional argument for folding is that you can't improve without them knowing it. You stand to win a medium size pot if you improve by 5th or can lose a large one if you get stuck in a race against Aces with your dead Ks.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well funny thing about this is that if I am behind right now then they MUST have poocket aces(or rolled threes but id doubt that). I therefore know when they improve as well as they will have to pair a board card. He can't have kings, if she calls she does not have split 3's. Also to them my hand looks like QQ mostly and probably not a concealed PP. Also, either has QQ they have a dead card as well.

Lastly, i don't advocate calling at all here, 5 more players to act behind.

My 2 decisions are 3 bet bet to probably get the pot heads up agains OM or fold.

[adanthar]

Yeah, you obviously can't call. Also, for all intents and purposes, CG isn't even in the hand, because if she calls 2 cold or reraises she has the nuts and you can bail out pretty quickly. Just treat this as a heads up hand with an extra X% (let's say 10%) chance you are behind to account for the girl.

So, you know approximately what OM has, he knows what you have (because QQ is functionally equivalent to KK here - the only bonus is he might make a bad fold with AA if you hit a Q somewhere) and it's a nice pot/you probably have the best hand. Just pop it. You have an edge, take it.

[HOWMANY]

Does the girl know how to play Stud? In other words is it possible that she thinks this is like Holdem and when it's 20/40 you gotta put 20 out there? Or is she aware that it's $5 BI?

If she knows the BI is $5 I am auto putting her on a 3 flush with an Ace probably. But then the old guy reraises. To be honest there is nothing that strikes more fear into me in poker than a man this old raising at any point in the hand, because these people are so close to death that any movement could be their last, so when they do something so bold as to raise it really means something.

If ANY other kind of player had reraised the bet I would suggest 3betting, but against a geezer I must fold.