25NL suck out a set on the river... villain raises!

[wake_up]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG ($22.95)
UTG+1 ($29.40)
MP1 ($120.25)
MP2 ($5.10)
MP3 ($15.45)
CO ($23.50)
Button ($30)
Hero ($27.65)
BB ($24.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $0.75</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, Hero calls $0.65, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($1.75) A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets $1.25</font>, Hero calls $1.25.

Turn: ($4.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, MP1 checks.

River: ($4.25) T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3.75</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to $10.5</font>,


What to do here? No reads really except the table seemed to be uber tight in general.

[Ikaika]

You're probably good to get it in here...I can't see any hand he'd raise with PF that he wouldn't bet on the turn unless you think he'd play KJ from MP(which is doubtful since you say the table is very tight).

[Atlanta Andrew]

I would push against most 6-max villains, but at full ring, I really don't know. You might want to try posting this hand in the full ring forum, as I think it makes a big difference in this hand.

Edit: Hmmm, my comment doesn't really make sense because a villain at 6-max is more likely to have KJ then at full ring. I'll have to think on this one a bit more.

-Andrew

[juanepr]

I think FR makes it even less likely that villian would raise with KJ in MP. I push and if villian shows you AA or QQ then make a note. I expect to be shown AK or AQ often.

[C4LL4W4Y]

A profile on villain would be helpful (especially his went to showdown statistic) so that we could determine not only what hands he's going to call a shove with, but what his opening range would be.

[inspir3d]

I reraise preflop to define opponents' hand and take control of the betting by leading out on the flop.
you have absolutely no idea where u stand on the flop the way u have played it.

KJ seems to fit best into villain's betting profile, and perhaps AT. he could possibly have played AA or QQ this way because he was stunned with such a huge hand/slowplaying it. paybe even 55 or 33.

Remote possibility is to put him on AK, i dont think AQ checks the turn.

i think i'll probably put in a min-reraise here and fold to an all-in since there are hands that beat you here and you don't want to give up value to worse hands which would call a reraise.

[catfish_01]

[ QUOTE ]
A profile on villain would be helpful (especially his went to showdown statistic) so that we could determine not only what hands he's going to call a shove with, but what his opening range would be.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just out of curiosity how do you use Went to Showdown / Won at Showdown to evaluate the opponents profile?

[Ikaika]

I use Went to Showdown as an indication of how likely they are to call my bets(read: to bluff or not to bluff). I don't use Won at Showdown because sample sizes are so small that the numbers are statistically insignificant; you need like 10k hands+ for that number to mean anything.

[catfish_01]

Ok I have scoured the essential threads of the forum in the past and vaguely remember what to look for, but at what point do you use Went to Showdown to assume opp is a calling station? &gt;33%?

[kolotoure]

Dbitel theorem ftw. I call her