16s: Surprised SNGPT says fold

[loxxii]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (3 handed) Poker Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button (t6070)
SB (t1370)
Hero (t6060)

Preflop: Hero is BB with J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t1345</font>, Hero calls t945.

Flop: (t2340) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Turn: (t2340) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

River: (t2340) 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

Final Pot: t2340

Why isnt this almost ATC regardless of his range due to pot odds?

[eurythmech]

Dunno, I'd call too.
What's the EV if he shoves ATC?

[RexWoo]

You -only- have (roughly) 2:1, not 2.5 or 3:1 here.

I would fold my trashiest hand (10% or so) but call with J4o

[holy32]

Its 945 for 1745, so 1 to 1.8.

If I'm not completely wrong, you need about 35% to call this in a cash game.

Not sure if I read this or if this is simply a theory of mine, maybe someone w/ more exp can comment:
In SNGs losing some amount of chips is usually worse for your EV than winning that same amount is good for it. So you will need better odds to call (based only on odds) than you would in a cash game. What range did you put him on ?

ps:
SB on any2:
EqPush: 37.33
EqFold: 36.56

[RexWoo]

holy32 : there are antes at this level on stars (50) so make it 1895.

[loxxii]

You know, he'd been tight all game and only pushed good hands up to that point, but I figured no way he was folding anything there, lo and behold he turns up Ax.

I gotta think even a tight player would push ATC there, but regardless, I figured it would be even money either way and maybe ICM says even money is not good enough late in SNGs like holy said.

[Shrooma]

SNGWizard lets you call (99% of hands) if SB shoves ATC.

Difference in equity is .93% and when simulating future games it increases to 1.34% (which is huge). I definately call in this spot not only for direct pot odds (getting 2:1 and J4o is about 50% to a random hand), but also for the possibility to become chip leader in the heads up game.

Even if SB pushes only 10% this is a call when simulating future games.

[holy32]

[ QUOTE ]
Even if SB pushes only 10% this is a call when simulating future games.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's pretty rediculous, how did you calculate this ?

[Shrooma]

Using Simulate Future Games on SNGWizard.

you will win from a 10% push 27.5% of the time leaving you with 41% equity by giving you the chiplead in the heads up game. If you lose your equity only drops 2% with respect to folding.

[Slim Pickens]

Yeah, only getting about 2:1 you can fold real trash. I call here because I think he's pushing really wide, wider than the 50% SNGWhiz defaulted to.