S8/b - is it time to say uncle?

[Andy B]

I didn't say it was a big pot. I said it was too big to fold. TT will get half of it a goodly percentage of the time and all of it plus future bets some percentage of the time--enough to continue. I think BBB's explanation is pretty solid. If you're unconvinced, I'll have a crack at it.

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much stronger than A2479 rainbow. (Still look good to you?)

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What the hell is this? Do you think I don't know how read hands?

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Trust me....

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Yeah, OK.

Elsewhere you suggest that you should only play to scoop. It is true that scooping is much more profitable than splitting, especially in a heads-up pot. If you give up on every pot that you're not going to scoop, you're throwing money away. And in a spot like this, where there are a few bets in the pot and your opponent's board isn't too threatening, you can't just throw in the towel.

[*TT*]

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yeah, but what's any of that have to do with folding sixth? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I mean, if not for the title, I'd assume you wanted to sexy bluff raise, heh (seems like a bad idea but it's not totally out of the question...)

so yeah, am I just reading the title wrong?

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I intended the title for multiple streets, arguments can be made for a fold in multiple places, but the standard line is a call - i was hoping people would pick up on as early as 4th street that I had serious doubts about the ability of the hand to chop the pot or better.

[RandomUser]

There are a few holdings he could have that would crush you besides AA.

What if he has Ah Kh in the hole?

Or any Axh

[adanthar]

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yeah, but what's any of that have to do with folding sixth? [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I mean, if not for the title, I'd assume you wanted to sexy bluff raise, heh (seems like a bad idea but it's not totally out of the question...)

so yeah, am I just reading the title wrong?

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I intended the title for multiple streets, arguments can be made for a fold in multiple places, but the standard line is a call - i was hoping people would pick up on as early as 4th street that I had serious doubts about the ability of the hand to chop the pot or better.

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oh, okay. in that case...yeah, it doesn't much matter. you obviously can't fold fourth, and fifth is (barely, but still) +EV if everybody's hand is face up. it's just what happens in stud8.

now, given the dead cards on *third* and the fact that I don't really know stud8 equity/how often people fold future streets at 3/6 that well or anything, I'm kinda interested in overlimping third. once there's a bunch of bets in the pot on fourth, though, you're seeing a river.

[RandomUser]

I double checked BBB's calculations and they are correct for 5th street making it a marginal call. The key is the reraise on 3rd street. Without that extra BB in the pot, it becomes a fold on 5th.

.54*1.33-.46*2=-.20

On 6th street, it is an easy call (7 outs to a low, 5 outs to a non-low flush, 4 outs to a low+flush and probably scoop). Villain might end up with a higher flush and/or better low, but I think those balance out the times where hero makes a flush and Villain has no low).

.19*2.83+.14*2.83+.11*5.83-.56*1=+1.02

And that number is probably too low considering you'd probably raise on any club.

[SweetLuckyMe]

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If I raise 4th, he is putting in another bet making it an expensive street and not accomplishing the goal you were hoping for. He is committed vs my board, he isn't going anywhere except to showdown.

[/ QUOTE ] By not raising 4th you don't sufficiently punish him for continuation betting the times he doesn't have aces. Even if he has aces in this spot your raise would be somewhat EV neutral and would also make your decisions on later streets easier due to the larger pot (i.e. you're more correct in peeling 5th and 6th after bricking). And, as always, retaking control of a hand brings its own advantages.

[RandomUser]

I don't mind the call on 4th as it reduces variance.

This hand is basically 7-card draw with not much sublety involved.