Read this before starting a "Who Do I pick in Survivor" Thread

[lastchance]

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I made a bet w/ a friend about who would do better in this if he made all his picks ahead of time and I made mine week to week.

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Why is your friend so dumb?

[Russ M.]

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I've got Dallas this week.

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[DonkeyKongSr]

I'm on Dallas too. Definitely their best matchup for quite awhile and I can save SD for when LT remembers how to kick ass again.

[Spellmen]

Dallas/SD both about 12 point favorites right now, so I'm on Dallas as well

[rafiki]

I have a pick'm pool where points are assigned based on how bad teams are. Anyone wanna assign the likelyhood of Miami winning at home ? They are worth 9 points vs Dallas being worth 4. This seems like Miami's best chance to win at home (vs Oakland). I'm sure there's some EV calculation I can make here. If Dallas wins this 90% of the time and gives me 4 points, and Miami wins 60% of the time for 9 points (that sound about right ?), Isn't it a clear pick for Miami ?

[rafiki]

bump !

[kyro]

If you can pick a team more than once, I would lean towards SD as I think the majority of people are scared to pick them.

[rafiki]

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If you can pick a team more than once, I would lean towards SD as I think the majority of people are scared to pick them.

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sadly I can only pick a team once. Also SD are worth very little points. The format is survivor+points, but if you get one wrong you keep going. You just don't get points for that choice. So going after Miami is a risk reward thing I may have to gamble on.

[Tyler Durden]

Less than 10% of the remaining field of 1,538 has used Dallas so I am reluctant to take the Cowboys b/c I think that will be everyone's pick. So should I use the separation theory and choose a different team? If so, who? I've already used Pittsburgh, Baltimore and New England.

Thanks for any advice.

[Spellmen]

San Diego is the only other pick I really like