Deep and long hand analysis at 5/10, hows my thought process? - Page 2

JackAll · #1 11-18-2007, 11:03 AM

I thought for a bit, and by the turn, his range for draws is very very low, and agree that he doesn't do this with AA/KK/AQ on this board if he is sane.

But - he could well do this with TT or a large range of air bluffs if you have been floating a lot tho...

ocklind · #2 11-18-2007, 06:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I thought for a bit, and by the turn, his range for draws is very very low, and agree that he doesn't do this with AA/KK/AQ on this board if he is sane.

But - he could well do this with TT or a large range of air bluffs if you have been floating a lot tho...

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I really dont think he puts me on a complete float, since hes perceived as tight. He may C/R the turn w/ TT but since he gotta expect me to have a good hand if I bet, its kinda stupid of him to C/R.

friedfish · #3 11-19-2007, 06:16 PM

First off i love the thought process u went through if i read villian correctly in this hand with his flop aggresion of course he is going to cb this mostly dry flop. Now when you call with your passiveness he can squarely put u on a pr of jacks right?? I think he has kq or aq here 90% of the time and that is why he goes for the c/r on turn cuz he puts you on a jack and the queen is a scare card. If i was playing this turn i would just call the raise and even though a lot of rivers kill your action, i would take the chance to stack him on a safe river since he will most likely lead river here 100% and then i get my stack in quickly. If your not willing to play for stacks with top 2 it is very -ev to call this pf. Great post though helped me think thru hands better and also what is villian thinking during hands

Bill King · #4 11-19-2007, 06:44 PM

i think i check behind a lot of the time.. this is a tough spot after you call the flop because your range is narrowed quite a bit IMO.. getting him to stack off w/ AA/KK is tough here.. he has to know you're going to bet the turn every time and be able to raise it for value, OR he's sure you're going to fold and this is a really really good play.. but this is a tough spot to go through with it

G_Dollaz · #5 11-19-2007, 08:05 PM

I don't think he would risk a free card here w/ a set, so this leads me to believe he's either got KT or some sort of semi-draw like JT or 9T. I stack off here w/ top 2 all day. I know he's 17/13 and all and he's probably not doing this w/ air, but I just can't get away here.

punter11235 · #6 11-19-2007, 12:10 PM

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if he’s a good player, we should fold this, right? I'd love to hear your thoughts please.

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As I like your thought process and all I think this conclusion is wrong.
Better one would be :
"if he is tight and solid player as I think he is the fold is correct". If he is really "good" you cant assume he is playing in such a predictable way that his range is top 2 pair + here and if he is good he may guess that you would fold almost everything in that spot so he could c/r you with air often.

Every time you make a statement like "if he is a good player he has something almost always here" there is something wrong with one of the two assumptions.

ocklind · #7 11-19-2007, 12:28 PM

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As I like your thought process and all I think this conclusion is wrong.
Better one would be :
"if he is tight and solid player as I think he is the fold is correct". If he is really "good" you cant assume he is playing in such a predictable way that his range is top 2 pair + here and if he is good he may guess that you would fold almost everything in that spot so he could c/r you with air often.

Every time you make a statement like "if he is a good player he has something almost always here" there is something wrong with one of the two assumptions.

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"if he’s a good player, we should fold this, right?"

By this I mean that he prolly can put us on a big hand, that will call his C/R and therefore only do it with legit hands. So the "good" player should assume you dont get many hands to fold on the turn and therefore wont bluff here. U agree?

KeanuReaver · #8 11-19-2007, 12:51 PM

a little bit of a lack of continuity in your pf and turn reads. T8 and KT aren't in your initial pf reads (and probably rightly so for a 17/13 player UTG+1) but you made your turn decision based somewhat on him having those hands.

as for analysis of his turn aggro, i think it means if anything he's not going to be taking many c/c lines at all. in other words, IF he checks this turn with AA KK or AQ, he does it with intentions of raising or folding (most likely a raise). whether or not he checks those hands in the first place i suppose is up for debate.

ocklind · #9 11-19-2007, 01:05 PM

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a little bit of a lack of continuity in your pf and turn reads. T8 and KT aren't in your initial pf reads (and probably rightly so for a 17/13 player UTG+1) but you made your turn decision based somewhat on him having those hands.

as for analysis of his turn aggro, i think it means if anything he's not going to be taking many c/c lines at all. in other words, IF he checks this turn with AA KK or AQ, he does it with intentions of raising or folding (most likely a raise). whether or not he checks those hands in the first place i suppose is up for debate.

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Yes I suppose it's kinda contradictiory but I think KTs is in his range, and maybe, when he chooses to mix it up, he plays T8s.

I agree with what you are saying, if he checks the turn, he's prolly not going to C/C but then again, I don't think he C/C the turn with AA/KK/AQ etc.