James: From Commerce, with love.

SNOWBALL · #1 10-15-2007, 09:08 AM

Commerce 9/18. I accidentally got on the 10 east instead of continuing south on the 405, so no 15/30 tonight, AND NO FREE FOOD EITHER. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img] OOPS!

I open UTG with AKdd. Everyone folds, because my table sucks. BB, who just sat down thinks a little and calls.

Flop AxTd7d. He checks. I check!

Turn is an offsuit J. He checks. I bet. He thinks for a while, and calls.

River is a 4d. He checks. I bet my nuts. He calls.

Basically, my analysis was that b/c he considered folding PF, he virtually never has a straight draw here, and every other hand he has is drawing extremely slim vs. me.
Also, because I have the K, it is less likely he has the K, which means it isn't easy for him to have something worth calling down with. Additionally, when I fire every street, he may fold the turn with his flopped pairs UI. There is also an outside chance he gets dumb with me on 4th with zilch.

Hot or not?

KitCloudkicker · #2 10-15-2007, 09:19 AM

maybe its just me, but when the PFR checks HU on an Ace-High board, my alarms go off.

I think he has A-rag and you missed a bet. he might also "think about it" preflop with a hand like QJ.

if he had J-rag, well no offense but thats being results-oriented.

SNOWBALL · #3 10-15-2007, 09:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
maybe its just me, but when the PFR checks HU on an Ace-High board, my alarms go off.

I think he has A-rag and you missed a bet. he might also "think about it" preflop with a hand like QJ.

if he had J-rag, well no offense but thats being results-oriented.

[/ QUOTE ]

your mother is results oriented

Grease · #4 10-15-2007, 09:38 AM

I agree here. When I flop a monster hand like this, my first reaction is to usually think "well, he may or may not call me down, but there's only one way to hope he got lucky enough to put in 2.5 more bets."

Checking this HU in position looks really fishy, and even the most inept players might notice that a player that is always aggressive suddenly checked when up against him.

Bet and pray he calls. Or raises.

SNOWBALL · #5 10-15-2007, 09:48 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree here. When I flop a monster hand like this, my first reaction is to usually think "well, he may or may not call me down, but there's only one way to hope he got lucky enough to put in 2.5 more bets."

Checking this HU in position looks really fishy, and even the most inept players might notice that a player that is always aggressive suddenly checked when up against him.

Bet and pray he calls. Or raises.

[/ QUOTE ]

he was new to the table so he doesn't know I am "usually aggressive"
I could tell he was legitimately considering folding PF, and that really really means that he almost never has a real draw here on the flop.

I agree it looks fishy. However, there are 2 factors mitigating this:

-People always put you on AK when you raise PF. When it comes K hi, they will make "smart folds" with their trash sometimes.
-People in these games look for ANY possible excuse to call. On the flop, if I bet, he has NO excuse to call with the vast majority of his probably holdings. However, if I check, then that is like giving steroids to this fishy gland in his brain secreting all that "call down" juice.

edit: This hand is sort of just screwing around a bit for purposes of experimentation. I think it is prob +ev, but even if it isn't, I enjoy making nonstandard plays from time to timn, so I can experiment and see what the results are. I usually try to pick spots where if I am wrong, it won't cost me much. I encourage other people to do the same. It will give you opportunities to think about poker from other angles.

Dhani · #6 10-15-2007, 09:50 AM

[ QUOTE ]
maybe its just me, but when the PFR, who appears to be a smart player in position ,checks HU on an Ace-High board, my alarms go off.

[/ QUOTE ]

SNOWBALL · #7 10-15-2007, 09:52 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
maybe its just me, but when the PFR, who appears to be a smart player in position ,checks HU on an Ace-High board, my alarms go off.

[/ QUOTE ]

[/ QUOTE ]

BB is not good at poker

Dhani · #8 10-15-2007, 09:53 AM

[quote edit: This hand is sort of just screwing around a bit for purposes of experimentation. I think it is prob +ev, but even if it isn't, I enjoy making nonstandard plays from time to timn, so I can experiment and see what the results are. I usually try to pick spots where if I am wrong, it won't cost me much. I encourage other people to do the same. It will give you opportunities to think about poker from other angles.

[/ QUOTE ]
I am happy to hear somone say that from time to time

DeuceKicker · #9 10-15-2007, 12:24 PM

Not hot.

A think-about-it hand might include two diamonds, or 86, or any almost-decent hand that he hesitated calling with because it was HU and going to be a relatively small pot.

It sounds like you've put him on a very narrow range because of his pre-flop hesitation.

SNOWBALL · #10 10-15-2007, 01:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]

It sounds like you've put him on a very narrow range because of his pre-flop hesitation.

[/ QUOTE ]

um no. I put him on a widish range that doesn't include hands that are likely to hit this flop in ways mentioned in my OP...
Basically, he has a lot of hands, with the top 35% or so removed.
meaning: he is unlikely to have 2 suited cards or 2 connected cards, or a pocket pair, or even big/medium hands like K8, Q9, A7, etc etc