NL 50:3 of a kind on flop...what to do with small PP against aggro NIT

[starkwired]

Villain is 14/13/6 over 500 hands. He stacks off willingly postflop with top pair type hands against even obvious two pair/sets.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 5 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $64.15
Hero (BB): $114.95
UTG: $82.35
CO: $48.00
BTN: $64.75

Preflop: Hero is dealt 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (5 Players)
<font color="red">UTG raises to $2.00</font>, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4.25) 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $3.00</font>, <font color="red">Hero raises to $9.00</font>, UTG calls $6.00

Turn: ($22.25) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $12.00</font>, UTG calls $12.00

River: ($46.25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">UTG bets $30.00</font>, Hero folds

Pot Size: $76.25 ($2 Rake)

Did I try to get too fancy? Villain seems pretty straightforward, but is a reg and maybe has it in him to play this slowly. Preflop call is standard, especially this deep, but every other street can be done differently, IMO. Thoughts?

[Heine]

You got too fancy. Given your read I might call a flop bet, and then c/f the turn.

If I translate your read correctly it means: Plays tight preflop, loose, calling station post flop.

Which means, no need to get fancy against this guy, just set mine.

[Waingro]

I don´t get it. Were you vbetting or bluffing? Or were just trying really hard to make him fold AK? I usually reserv your line for occasions when I actually want the money go into the middle.

[vixticator]

Fold flop.

[starkwired]

I didn't think he had a pair on the flop when he flat called my reraise. Every other hand I'd seen him play where he flopped a hand (TPTK, etc.), he played hard. I wanted to check raise him off a small PP or AK-AQ, and so I figured he'd fold his hand on the turn. That's why the hand confused me. It didn't make sense with his previous lines.

[starkwired]

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Fold flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Villain is continuation betting here with every hand. We are ahead against his range, right?

[rebuyboy]

u realise that every hand in his range has 7 outs twice vs. you if he doesnt already have you beat.

[Waingro]

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Fold flop.

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Really? Villain is continuation betting here with every hand. We are ahead against his range, right?

[/ QUOTE ]
No. If we suppose he raises 22+ and AQ+ from UTG then:

Board: 8h 8d 8s
Hand 0: 41.285% { 5d5h }
Hand 1: 58.715% { 22+, AQs+, AQo+ }

[vixticator]

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Fold flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Really? Villain is continuation betting here with every hand. We are ahead against his range, right?

[/ QUOTE ]He's way too tight to be ahead. Horrible flop with you acting OOP. Probably is not folding AK to raise, I certainly wouldn't. So, you'll just be lost in entire hand with no way to improve (well, quads) and first to act. This is worst flop possible.

[Kasane]

C/r is iffy, but shut down after that oop. You're toast once you're called. 14/13/6 is a tough nut. When they've got something, they're going with it; when they don't, they're gone. He'd have reluctantly folded overcards on the flop, trying to get him to fold pp's better than yours is a losing proposition (doesn't mean it can't be done, just not profitably.)