sort of gross spot on the river

TxRedMan · #1 07-09-2007, 04:27 AM

30-60, passive game here in Dallas.

I've got the kill UTG with 9-2-3-4 double suited. Three limpers, blinds check, 6-way pot.

Flop comes

9-2-4 rainbow

blinds check, i check, UTG+1 bets, two people call, I call.

Turn

4 still rainbow

I lead out, three people call

River

A

I......?

bbartlog · #2 07-09-2007, 06:02 AM

Strange spot... any 99xx hand should raise the flop or the turn. AAxx should often raise preflop, but in any case with six to the flop I wouldn't usually expect one player to hold two aces. And I would think that if someone has A4xx, they'd either fold the flop (if their low potential was busted) or raise the turn (if they had something like A34x). But you did say they were passive.
With two callers, I lead out here every time, but with three villains to the river I start to think it's likely that someone has A45x/A34x or the like. I would check/call.

any4 · #3 07-09-2007, 09:26 AM

check/call cause you can win max. half pot. I think normally someone with 4xxx raise the turn so I guess you win 80% of this spots the high pot.

bbartlog · #4 07-09-2007, 09:45 AM

If you actually think he's 80% likely to be good for the high here, then he should be leading out. The question isn't how much of the pot he can win, but how much of the new money on the river he can expect to win...

sc000t · #5 07-09-2007, 11:33 AM

I like a c/r on the turn.

As played I lead out on the river. Very possible someone has 35 and reraises and you want to trap dead money in here. I think your hand is good, not worried about 99xx, only AAxx which is too nitty to worry about imo in this spot. Lead out and call or reraise a raise.

bbartlog · #6 07-09-2007, 12:46 PM

only AAxx which is too nitty to worry about

Did you forget A4xx, or do you have some unmentioned reason for discounting that possibility as well?

jedi · #7 07-09-2007, 03:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
only AAxx which is too nitty to worry about

Did you forget A4xx, or do you have some unmentioned reason for discounting that possibility as well?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not discounting the possibility, but that's monsters under the bed. Bet!

Fiasco · #8 07-09-2007, 04:05 PM

c/f sucks. b/f sucks. b/r sucks. c/r is probably a little too adventurous.

That leaves c/c and b/c. If it had been another low card I think we could have expected someone else to put in a bet on the river, but given that it was the A I think there is too high a chance that the river could get checked through.

If you bet the river you could easily get called by several non-wheel lows that would have checked. A4 is a minor concern, but I think you net more betting the river (and calling any raise) than you do checking and calling.

I vote bet

prodonkey · #9 07-09-2007, 04:24 PM

I'd play it to not push out any people.. nobody has AA here or 99.. 95% of the time anyway. A4 is a possibility. I think I'd just lead.

bbartlog · #10 07-09-2007, 05:22 PM

So what are these three people supposed to be calling to the river with? I can believe that two of them would have A3xx, but surely not all three of them? The problem I see is that with this sort of strange dry board, there just aren't that many hands that both call preflop *and* call a big bet on the turn (unless of course opponents are very bad). A3x, 235x, A24x, maybe 3456 or AAxx? It's just peculiar to see three people hanging around on a board like this and I think that you have to bump up your estimate of someone holding the case 4 accordingly - and most of the time is someone is playing a 4 they'll have an ace as well. Personally I expect to see someone show down A45x. Of course you could be lucky and have someone raise you while holding 2345, but I don't think it's likely...