Another standard hand I think...

[BubbleMint]

No apologies necessary. I am enjoying the discussion.

I would have folded red kings also.

Come the river the only hand I am reasonably beating was AcJx, the turn donk when the flush/str8 came in was awfully strong, coupled with him check calling 2 on the flop (classic,I am on a draw play).

[gobbledygeek]

I probably misapply the raise-the-turn-for-free-showdown play all the time, but I think that's what I do here; is that bad? In my usual live 2/4 game most of the time that will get me the free showdown (rarely will I get 3bet/led-into, although sometimes I will get called/led-into).

GcluelessnoobG

[elindauer]

The 9 of clubs is the death card for you considering the ranges. You have two players calling 2 cold on the flop, and the 9 of clubs completes nearly all of them (KQ and clubs both get there). Raising the turn would be really questionable with this hand, since your opponent is so likely to hold what he is representing, not to mention that there is still another player behind you who can hold these hands if the bettor does not.

Worse, you expose yourself to a 3-bet in a spot where you have lots of outs to non-nut hands. That makes a 3-bet really expensive for you, since you are probably drawing pretty thin but won't be able to fold.

Call turn, make a tough decision on the river depending on the card / action. At least you'll know then whether or not SB check-raised the turn, etc.

good luck.
Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
However, my point was that the decision to see the showdown UI should be made on the turn getting 6.5:1 - is my thinking wrong here or should I just re-evaluate on the river separately?

[/ QUOTE ]

Showing down UI is just one way you can win this hand. On the turn, you have outs to flushes and straights as well.

So when considering a turn call, you want to take into account the entire range of possibilities... of which, call / call is just one contributing term.

When trying to decide the EV of call / call, you should factor in only the profit from the river call, ignoring the fact that you have to put in two bets to get there. You add that profit to the profit from the times you improve, and compare that number to 1 big bet.


So if your hand is either ahead or has no way to improve, you continue only if the profit from the river call is > 1 big bet (the amount you have to spend to get to that profitable situation on the turn). If river call unimproved = profit .5 BB, and you also have a draw that in this pot is worth .75 BB, you also call turn / call river, even though you couldn't call the turn without the draw.

Hope that clears up a few things.

-Eric

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
For this particular hand I thought getting 7:1 on the turn is not enough to showdown UI. That board hits so many hands in the typical cold-call range that I think Hero is behind on the turn and the river didn't change that.

[/ QUOTE ]

The turn is not a showdown unimproved or not decision. Your hand may have outs to improve as well. Club / Q rivers are an important consideration when thinking about the value of a turn call.

[elindauer]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you should just call and call 2/3 rivers and raise the good ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck! There isn't a card in the deck that makes your hand worth a raise.

Or maybe that's what you mean... raise the good ones, of which, there are none, so don't ever raise the river. If so, I agree. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric

[elindauer]

You're thinking about it correctly Mitke. I think there's an easier way to think about (see other post) but what you are describing gets there too (and is the way many people view it).

-Eric

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably misapply the raise-the-turn-for-free-showdown play all the time, but I think that's what I do here; is that bad? In my usual live 2/4 game most of the time that will get me the free showdown (rarely will I get 3bet/led-into, although sometimes I will get called/led-into).

GcluelessnoobG

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but in this particular hand Hero is getting three bet fifteen kinds of always on that card.

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think you should just call and call 2/3 rivers and raise the good ones.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yuck! There isn't a card in the deck that makes your hand worth a raise.

Or maybe that's what you mean... raise the good ones, of which, there are none, so don't ever raise the river. If so, I agree. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

-Eric

[/ QUOTE ]

Even the A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]? [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[One Outer]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ricks:
Mitke

We have the 2nd nut FD on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

And we have a GS to a straight as well. I'm not folding the turn. I'm folding the river UI.

I'm just trying to ask is my way of thinking wrong in general if I decide on the turn (considering the ~7:1 to calldown) not to go to showdown UI and to re-evaluate in case we improve - peeling the turn in any case.

I try to elaborate:

I'd fold red kings on the turn on the premise that I think we are behind too often that getting ~7:1 to calldown to be profitable and that out outs are tainted.

I call in this current spot as we have the odds to call. I'm not calling the river because I thought we were behind too often for calling down ~7:1 to be profitable..

Hmm.. come the river it's 14:1 and the 1BB we put in isn't ours anymore. So, re-evaluate to estimate if it's possible SB was donking a TP or something often enough for calling 14:1 to be profitable. I guess it's a crying-call all the same. I wouldn't call if it still was ~7:1.


So my previous blabbering didn't make any sense here and I was just messing around with my own head... just consider the streets in isolation if you decide to continue.

My apologies to the OP for this off-topic discussion.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is more or less correct in the abstract but it doesn't apply to this hand. In the red KK example there are much fewer ways you can win the pot. Given the number of draws the hand in question has you can't make a showdown decision mathematically on the turn.

I'd fold this river, fwiw.