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  #1  
Old 10-09-2007, 10:57 PM
FieryJustice FieryJustice is offline
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Default Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

Online poker is sucking for me now so I figured id go back and work on my blackjack game. Last year at the wsop I was counting and playing well (and running well) and won $40,000 from the 2 deck game at the rio. Since then, I have learned that they have a 2 deck game at mgm where you can double after splits. I think the house edge is something like .25% off the top.

So, here are my questions. Using a simple hi lo counting, is it possible to get a large enough edge in the $200 minbet game in the mgm casinos to win 1 minbet per hour? How big of swings should I expect, betting a 1-5 spread? 1-10 spread? Should I use a comp card while I am playing, assuming I will be playing at a different mgm casino every day? It would suck badly to get banned. I plan on studying some of my bj books and practicing at home for a few days then might make the jump to the real games. If I am forgetting anything, please let me know. Also, are there any good forums out there where I could learn anything else I might be missing? Thanks.
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  #2  
Old 10-10-2007, 01:06 PM
CORed CORed is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

I've dabbled in counting, but never done it professionally. Some things to think about:

Variance is wicked in blackjack. You need a big playing bankroll and plenty of living expenses saved up. Take your worst poker downswing and multiply it by 5 to get an idea of what is in store.

I don't think there are enough good double deck games around to be sustainable. if you are playing high enough to make a living, it's only a matter of time until you get backed off or barred. Whether you use a comp card or not, if you get barred from one MGM property, you will likely get barred from all of them. They will fax your picture to the others. If you are serious about making a living at it, you will probably have to play shoes, which means bigger spreads, more variance, bigger bankroll requirements.

Consider team play, if you're not hopelessly individualistic. A pooled bankroll and more hands played helps with the variance. Also, spotter/big player tactics, as used by the MIT team, and Ken Uston before him, can make you a little harder to detect.

BJ21 Green Chip is probably your best bet for a forum. It's paid membership, but I think the fee is something like $50 per year, which shouldn't be a problem if you are contemplating playing $200 minimum games.
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Old 10-10-2007, 02:16 PM
jba jba is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

[ QUOTE ]
Take your worst poker downswing and multiply it by 5 to get an idea of what is in store.

[/ QUOTE ]

that is def the problem with blackjack. if you assume that you can always beat poker games and let's say your hourly rate in poker is ((1/300)*bankroll)/hr. In blackjack it's closer to ((1/1500)*bankroll)/hr.

going from poker -> bj really only makes sense when:
- it's not purely for EV (you want fun, comps, etc)
- your bankroll is either much higher than your skill, or your bankroll is much bigger than the biggest beatable poker games you can find.
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  #4  
Old 10-10-2007, 03:00 PM
CORed CORed is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

If I'm in Vegas, or somewhere else that has decent blackjack games, I'll play for fun, in $5 or $10 minimum games, and I'll count, because if I'm going to play, I'd rather have an edge, but I can't imagine trying to do it for a living. Even if I had the bankroll, I don't think I could handle the swings emotionally. I've had bad runs at poker, but nothing that compares to a bad run at blackjack.

16 vs. 10 hit and bust.
14 vs. 5 stand. Dealer makes 5 card 21.
Count is good. Increase bet.
20. Dealer blackjack.
20 Dealer 20 push.
14 vs. 10 hit and bust.
12 vs. 10 hit and bust. Dealer had 16.
11 vs. 6 Double. Draw Ace. Dealer makes 4 card 17.
20 Dealer has 20.

Repeat 200 times.
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  #5  
Old 10-10-2007, 04:48 PM
FieryJustice FieryJustice is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

My problem is that I have a lot more money than I need to play poker. I can barely beat 3/6 nl online but I have $200,000 sitting around. Also, big sngs no longer run enough to make me want to play them and its only worth it to play big online mtts 3 days of the week. I guess id just rather do something productive while sitting around Vegas waiting for the next big mtt to start.

I got on bj21 and noticed that the house edge in the big 2 deck games at mgm is .19% I also saw some other games with similar edges around other casinos but with smaller limits. I am most likely going to practice at home for a while and then go to the casino and act like some dumb drunk kid.

Any other advice would be appreciated. Thanks
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  #6  
Old 10-10-2007, 05:48 PM
jba jba is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

yeah you are a textbook case then. just drill a lot, get some software (casino verite is what I've used and it's fine). get the count down hard so you can do it quickly and easily and without a lot of thought.

if you have young friends or a girlfriend who can play with you that will help a ton. I assume you are young? how "geeky" do you look? if you're betting with black chips in a 2 deck game don't stay in one place more than about 30-45 minutes, heads up always if possible. if you're outside of the strip area make that green chips. try to alternate shifts. so you're not seeing the same people all the time. rathole as much as possible, but be super aware that places keep really close track of chips and it's better to be a known winner than a known ratholer. never go south with 500 chips or bigger and be careful with blacks unless there's another good reason for it to come up missing (like another player just walked off with a bunch of blacks that weren't part of a color up). if you go south with 3 blacks when the place is dead they will know it. never decrease your bet after a win regardless of the count. try very hard not to go from a bunch of units to 1 because of a shuffle. sometimes start with >1 unit off the top and decrease on the next hand.

bj21 is good, get the green chip membership and read a bunch of the archives, there's a lot of stuff in there.
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  #7  
Old 10-10-2007, 07:29 PM
mingorama mingorama is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

Pit bosses, and even dealers these days are trained to recognize and identify counters. Dealers call floor when they see you spread your bet significantly (as the count will often warrant). Not to mention that the rules have steadily taken away the rules that minimize the house edge (like dealers standing on soft 17, splitting aces more than once, doubling after split, etc). I'm surprised you haven't been pegged yet as a counter. And don't think, even if you hop to different MGM/Mirage casinos, that you won't get recognized.... especially at a $200 minbet game. Would love to see you enjoy some success, but there's no telling when you get on "the list".... it will be pretty tough to continue playing after that point. But I wish you the best, regardless.
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  #8  
Old 10-10-2007, 08:17 PM
FieryJustice FieryJustice is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

I look pretty normal and can act semidumb if I try. I guess ill just go in and act like some kid that has some money from his parents. Do you think it would help or hurt if they knew I won a wpt and thats why I have lots of cash money in the cage? I planned on playing the $100 or $200 min game probably 4ish days a week while I am in Vegas, which is about 2 weeks per month. I dont know if that will be enough to attract a lot of attention. Again, thank you for the advice. I greatly appreciate it.
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  #9  
Old 10-10-2007, 09:46 PM
Thremp Thremp is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

FieryJ,

Just take the gold while you can. Act like a huge douche and try to sex every cocktail waitress... Profit.
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  #10  
Old 10-12-2007, 04:21 AM
Nick Rivers Nick Rivers is offline
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Default Re: Questions about becomming a pro blackjack player

You should look for techniques to give you a bigger edge than just card counting. Hole-carding, steering, sequencing, the turn, and many other techniques are viable ways of legally winning money in the casinos these days. They all take some real effort to learn and a lot of experience to master, but they can all get you an edge much, much larger than counting cards. You can check out "Beyond Counting" (Grosjean), "Casino Game Protection" (Forte), and "Blackjack Ace Prediction" (McDowell) for more information on these techniques.

If you want to count cards, my advice is to go for huge spreads on shoe games. If you play in the major Las Vegas houses on the weekends (Bellagio, MGM, Mandalay Bay, Venetian, Rio, Caesars, Wynn), you can get away with murderous spreads on their shoes, because there is so much other, larger action around that you don't stick out or draw a lot of notice. Try to play quick sessions with hyper-aggressive spreads (1- 2 x 20+) and slip out before you get noticed. The most successful counters I know play like this. They also make heavy use of fake IDs to get players cards, and to get new players cards when those are burned out. Whether you want to get involved in all of that is up to you. Some do, some don't. If you get backed off, stay out of that casino on that shift for a few weeks and just be on the lookout for the boss(es) who gave you heat or backed you off. Don't play in front of them again for a while.

On days you don't feel like playing blackjack, you can go into any of the major poker rooms and find a 10-20 or bigger NL game that's easier to beat than the 3-6 games online.
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