Pot control or protection? Discuss this texture

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
I would bet 2/3s pot here and see what happens. If villian pushes, maybe we lay it down. If villian calls and checks the turn, then I would check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

The interesting thing about this spot, I think, is, that you need to put it all together. I forgot to state the pot size on the flop in my OP. But it's obv. about $6.40 (not sure about the rake). Villain has approx. $18 left.

So your line would mean betting about $4 which would make a $14.4 pot on the turn and villain having only $14, i.e. a PSB left. I would have invested $7.10 into the pot which is 30% of villains effective stack, i.e. folding the best hand here would be a major mistake. So the "maybe we lay it down" in your post is actually a big factor to consider here.

[TheDoubleA]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
How about this; you check behind. Turn comes a 10, Q, or 8, and villian pushes on you with AK. Or turn comes Q and villian pushes on you with 88.


[/ QUOTE ]

I actually pondered the following during the hand: the board is already very coordinated, so the huge majority of turn cards that can come off are going to be blanks, esp. because villain is more likely to hold broadway cards than something like a small connector.

Thoughts?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well imo we dont want to see Qs, 10s or 8s. That is 12 of the remaing 47 cards, or 25%ish. I would not want to let them to draw to that for free.

[0524432]

You gotta bet it man, check/folding a scary turn is too weak. While this board is not the best for AA, the villain has to know you have a strong hand to 3b then cbet that flop. If you are met with a large c/r, IMO it's +eV to muck. Most of the time though, I think you'll get a fold or get called down by a weaker hand, just play accordingly.

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
You gotta bet it man, check/folding a scary turn is too weak. While this board is not the best for AA, the villain has to know you have a strong hand to 3b then cbet that flop. If you are met with a large c/r, IMO it's +eV to muck. Most of the time though, I think you'll get a fold or get called down by a weaker hand, just play accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are contradicting yourself. When he "has to know" that I have a strong hand when I bet this flop, why would he call down with a weaker hand? And you need to consider stack sizes more. I will get 2:1 if he pushes which isn't bad, considering that he might play hit or miss with AK.

[Smilin']

Disclaimer: You're a much better player than I am.

That said, are you sure you want to avoid a big pot here? First off, your read seems weak, so basing your play too much on it doesn't sound solid. Secondly, if Villain has you beat and you check one street, he'll probably use the other two streets to get ai or close to it. So (usually) the only way you avoid playing a big pot if you're beat is to fold at some point. If you fold to his first bet after checking the flop, I think you get bet off the best hand often. If you call one bet but fold to a push, you'll be folding getting 2:1 odds, and I'm not sure your read is solid enough to make that +EV.

IMO, this is a spot where you'll be unhappy to get all in but you should still be willing to do it (because the alternative lines are worse). So I see 3 possible routes:

1) Bet flop and commit the rest of your chips on a future round no matter what.

2) Check flop and bet turn, bet river no matter what comes (unless Villain bets or raises, in which case you call).

3) Check flop and get it all in when the turn card is safe, check/folding if it's dangerous.

Given the (weak) read on Villain, I think I kind of like #3, but I'm not too sure on that. I just don't like folding without a bad turn card, given pot and stack sizes.

[Genz]

[ QUOTE ]
Well imo we dont want to see Qs, 10s or 8s. That is 12 of the remaing 47 cards, or 25%ish. I would not want to let them to draw to that for free.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you have to consider that villain probably holds at least 1 of the high cards when I'm ahead. That doesn't change much. But since a bet of mine will easily put me to a decision for all my chips later in the hand, wouldn't I want to make sure that I'm in one of the 75% spots?

Two additional thoughts: I don't think that folding a pair when there are 4 to a broadway straight on the board and villain is likely to have high cards is a weak play.
You guys actually want to bet because you want to take that pot down. Admit it! [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img] A tight player won't call on a gutshot alone in a 3bet pot so he won't make a bad call there. And honestly, I doubt that he will bluff a lot in this spot when one of the scare cards comes. After all, he has to consider that I could be slowplaying a monster when I check behind on the flop.

[0524432]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
You gotta bet it man, check/folding a scary turn is too weak. While this board is not the best for AA, the villain has to know you have a strong hand to 3b then cbet that flop. If you are met with a large c/r, IMO it's +eV to muck. Most of the time though, I think you'll get a fold or get called down by a weaker hand, just play accordingly.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are contradicting yourself. When he "has to know" that I have a strong hand when I bet this flop, why would he call down with a weaker hand? And you need to consider stack sizes more. I will get 2:1 if he pushes which isn't bad, considering that he might play hit or miss with AK.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well you are right about stack sizes, I didn't look. I'm in MCSE class on 2p2 all day =) i miss some things .... As for the contradiction, ummm, you don't think AK/KQ or worse puts all the $ in here and worse on certain ocassions? That's where I seem to make the most $ with AA, 3bet PF or not. Everyone wants to think their hands are good in a big pot. Consider the % of villains who are thinking (2p2, CR, PXF) players, it's a very small sample.

There will be PLENTY of times where a worse hand gets all their $ in.

[Genz]

EVERYBODY PLEASE ASSUME FOR THE SAKE OF DISCUSSION THAT VILLAIN IS RUNNING 17/7/2.8 OVER 150K HANDS!

It's not about the specific read in this specific hand but about the spot, about commiting, about value, about pot control and protection and putting it all together.

[netstorm]

*grunching*

This flop is the right one to check behind.

Lets assign a range for an unknown. Nit villain open UTG, and calls a 3bet. ding ding ding ding, alarm! UTG, calls a 3bet OOP... JJ+, AKo for me.

to the flop. 9JK rainbow. What do we beat? AK and QQ. What hands call our bet? AK, AA, KK, JJ. QQ folds here about 95% of the time.

By checking behind, we allow villain to take a stab at the pot with AK and perhaps QQ. We like to keep this pot small, because we dont like this flop. I dont worry about draws, because the only draw here could be AQs, and I'd be surprised if a nit calls that.

In short: I check behind, and will call a bet UI (either turn or river) If 2 blanks hit, I will fire on the river.

[Rythm]

I'd need a way better read than those stats (assuming that they're over a reliable sample) to not try to get all the money in here. People play bad in 3-bet pots and even a total nit will have a really hard time getting away from AK, which is also a pretty big part of his range here. It just doesn't seem worth it to let cards that scare him off his AK show up just to get some value from QQ, and hands that beat us are too small a part of his range to worry much about here IMO. I'd bet the flop and then call a shove/shove over a c/r, or shove most turns if he just called.

A 3-bet pot with 100 BB stacks and an overpair is rarely the time to worry about pot control, and I don't think this is an exception. If you really want to check a street, do it on the turn. That way you don't have to worry about potential scarecards as much and you'll get at least 1 street of value from AK before something hits that makes him think he's beat. He's a nit, so I think draws having less equity on the turn is a pretty minor consideration and actually a reason to bet the flop rather than check it. You probably won't get any value from those hands while you have them beat, so you might as well make him fold them before they hit. Also, if he will in fact pay you off with a draw, it's much more likely to happen on the flop when his hand has more equity.

Edit: I think he has TT-QQ and AK here a large majority of the time, with TT possibly being a bit less likely than the other hands. If he has TT he's not putting any more money in the pot unless we let him improve and the same may be true for QQ. That leaves AK and JJ, with AK being twice as likely.