HU SNG

[dw33b]

So I sit down at a HU SNG and my opponent proceeds to push every hand. If I limp when I'm the button, they push. I'm not sure how to figure out the math on this problem. I don't want to call with any cards better than a random range because I know the future action. What do you think I have to call with????

Just for clarification, 1500 stacks to start and 10/20 blinds.

[ymu]

HU forum is the place for this. $EV=cEV and they know about deep-stacked HU play, we don't.

Poker Stove will tell you the range that beats ATC. Just decide what min edge you want with a zillion chances to take his stack while the blinds are still tiny.

[middleweb]

If he's pushing every hand, I wait for a monster and trap...? Even if you blind down to $1100 or so then double you've got a big lead.

[dw33b]

Thank you ymu, I didn't realize there was a HU forum. I posted the question over there. Middleweb, what's your definition of a monster? I was looking for an actual range. It doesn't help to respond if you're going to be so vague.

[flopton]

Just over 50% is +ev but as others have mentioned you might want to wait for a better spot than just marginally positive, because he is giving you constant opportunities. Top 25% is 33+, any ace, K9+, QTs+.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
Thank you ymu, I didn't realize there was a HU forum. I posted the question over there. Middleweb, what's your definition of a monster? I was looking for an actual range. It doesn't help to respond if you're going to be so vague.

[/ QUOTE ]
Monster here is whatever you define it to be. Do you want to play for stacks as a 51:49 or a 99:1. No to the former, impossible to the latter. 85% is as good as you'll get (ie wait for AA). But you may have blinded off so long waiting, it's not a good idea.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 85.204% 84.93% 00.27% 10689050508 34206936.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 14.796% 14.52% 00.27% 1827970020 34206936.00 { random }

So, find a range that occurs with reasonable frequency (eg top 10% or top 20%) that gives you a satisfactory edge, given that he will keep offering his stack to you every hand.
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.590% 62.53% 01.06% 354146018076 5994151582.00 { 66+, A4s+, K8s+, Q9s+, J9s+, T9s, A9o+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }
Hand 1: 36.410% 35.35% 01.06% 200210226760 5994151582.00 { random }


Play with numbers until it feels good.

The HU forum probably solved this long ago. It may even be their equivalent of "should I fold AA" or summat. Dunno - don't hang out there.

[BradleyT]

Did you win?

[dw33b]

yes I did, its happened twice in the past week or so. But when the cards get flipped over and you're really only a 56% favorite, you wonder if you didn't wait long enough.

[ymu]

[ QUOTE ]
yes I did, its happened twice in the past week or so. But when the cards get flipped over and you're really only a 56% favorite, you wonder if you didn't wait long enough.

[/ QUOTE ]
Range v range will always be like that. But if your calling range has, say, 60% equity against his pushing range you will stack him 60% of the time in the long run. Sometimes it'll be TT v 22 and you're 81% and smiling. It all averages out, including bad beats administered by either of you.

[pothead]

It's an interesting problem because your first reaction will probably be "what a donkey, I just wait for decent cards and call".
But when you think more about it one realise that if you are a good player with more than 60% wins you actually get less chance against this kind of push monkey.

I'm not a math wizard, but a rough outline of the problem (anyone please fill in or correct if I'm out):

As a way out example say you wait for the aces...they should statistically appear after 221 hands.
Each hand will cost you 15.
Without accounting for increasing blinds 221*15=3315
So most of the time you would be blinded out with that approach.

If you take a more reasonable approach, like the top 10% of hands you will then loose 150 chips of your stack waiting for a calling hand and in the end not get much more chance of winning than your win rate against a normal player.
Factoring in the 10% in chips lost to your opponent waiting for the calling hand means that you are actually worse off than against many decent players.
Your 68% chance of winning with the top 10% will still mean that the opponent will have a stack of 300 chips when you win. Although hurt, not at all impossible to make a comeback.

If we take the top 20% of hands we have 63.6% chance of winning and have lost 5% of our stack.
Top 33% we have 60.7% chance of winning and have only lost 3% of our stack.
Top 50% and we have 57.7% of winning.

So basically whatever we do it's hard to get a 60% edge against that kind of player and the sweet spot seems to be somewhere around the top 30-40% hands.
It is a quite frustrating fact if you normally win 65% of the time against decent players.
But the good thing about those matches is that they go quick and you are bound to be a favourite so they are still good for the hourly rate.