NL 50 valuebet river here?

[xeanatic]

Villian is 30/9/0.7 over 30ish hands

Checking behind seems save on this river, but is there any value in betting here? I think we only get value from Kx. All other hands got us beat.

Poker Stars - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $0.25/$0.50 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $86.65
BB: $49.20
UTG: $52.20
Hero (MP): $54.80
CO: $18.50
BTN: $52.90

Preflop: Hero is dealt A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 Players)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2.00</font>, 2 folds, SB calls $1.75, BB folds

Flop: ($4.50) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $3.00</font>, SB calls $3.00

Turn: ($10.50) J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets $7.50</font>, SB calls $7.50

River: ($25.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, Hero ?

[kenadams]

I probably check... We can only get value from AK, which is unlikely from preflop. We lose to KQ, KJ, KT or any of the many 2 pair hands possible. If he was on a straight draw he probably got there. If he was on a flush draw, he won't call. If he raises us, we have to lay it down and our hand has showdown potential.

[CrustyFace]

I check too for the same reasons as kena.

[kroeliewoelie]

I see no value in betting for the same reasons as Kenadams.

[Speirsy]

I bet here 100% of the time, theres too much value lost by checking this down

[CrustyFace]

[ QUOTE ]
I bet here 100% of the time, theres too much value lost by checking this down

[/ QUOTE ]

How much would you bet?

[whyzze]

check. No worse hand is calling more than 5 bucks here. And even if it is worse it opens you up to crai bluff that you can never call.

[Speirsy]

$15 - $20 and expect to be called by a king.

I dont see any 2 pair hands other than maybe k9 being shown down here the way the hands played out

[Pokey]

Reasons to value bet:

1. Villain is passive. You're less likely to face a check-raise against a passive villain, which would make you hate your life.

2. Your hand is decent. Villain's range is wide enough to include lots of one-pair hands, which you beat.

3. The flush missed. If villain was on a combo draw it didn't get there, and villain can talk himself into calling with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] or some such crap.


Reasons for checking behind:

1. Your opponent is passive. He's not automatically betting a hand that beats yours, but he's probably calling with it.

2. We don't have enough information to know what kind of villain he is. After 30 hands, you don't even know his name, much less his postflop playing style. If he caught a couple rounds of strange hands, this could be a TAG, a LAG, a nit, a rock, a maniac, or any other kind of opponent. Knowing nothing about an opponent makes it MUCH harder to value bet the river this thinly.

3. An incredibly obvious and entirely likely draw just made it. Any single, solitary queen just made a straight. If villain isn't blind he can spot that, and it will make him more hesitant to call without something "decent." (Oddly enough, villains can talk themselves into calling here with two pair and sets to "keep you honest," but they have a harder time calling with one pair hands; strange lil' buggers.) Also, many of villain's holdings include a queen. Also, many villains love to slowplay, even on the river. Checking with a queen with the intent to raise is entirely in character with a semi-passive player's behavior. If he's REALLY passive, he could easily check/call with the queen, worried that you have AQ.

4. Against villain's range, you're on some shaky ground. If villain's holding is "any two broadway" you're behind: most of those holdings turned into two pair or the straight by now. Worse yet, the holdings that you DO beat are going to either be missed flushes (which mostly fold this river) or very weak one-pair hands that are going to be afraid of that river card (and which mostly fold this river).

Finding value on this river is hard. I think a very tiny bet gets called here by weaker hands sometimes, but it opens you up to a check-raise that you cannot answer. As such, I check behind in this situation until I know the villain better.

In order to bet this river, I'd want to know:

- Villain wins at showdown infrequently
- Villain doesn't check-raise rivers often

[Speirsy]

[ QUOTE ]

- Villain doesn't check-raise rivers often

[/ QUOTE ]

&gt;90% of micro stakes players in my experience