PokerFink's NFC Rankings (Week 10)

[j555]

Four of the six Giants wins came against the Atlanta Falcons, the San Fransisco 49ers, the New York Jets, and the Miami Dolphins aka 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. And LOL at calling some of these Packers close wins a loss when you have no idea what would have happened. The 1st Vikings game was a 2 TD lead until a late TD by the Vikings closed the gap, and then the Packers fumbled it to give the Vikings a chance to tie it. Hardly a loss! By that logic, the Giants close win against the Dolphins and their 14 point comeback vs. the Skins should be losses, and the Packers loss to the Bears should be a win because they handed the game to the Bears on a silver platter. The Packers 4-5 in the NFC? LOL LOL LOL!

[PokerFink]

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I am pretty sure if you went into a Sea locker room after a 3 point win against a top tier team in the locker room they are much happier about their accomplishment than when the rout the garbage of the league.

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Yeah because locker room happiness is a great indicator of future performance.

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Predictive success and the numbers mean dick b/c the numbers plugged in are skewed as hell.

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Oh, I see you've done research on this. Please, the rest of the SE would love to see your research.

Until you post that though, I'll stick with FO's research, which says you're wrong.

[BillNye]

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Four of the six Giants wins came against the Atlanta Falcons, the San Fransisco 49ers, the New York Jets, and the Miami Dolphins aka 4 of the 5 worst teams in the league. And LOL at calling some of these Packers close wins a loss when you have no idea what would have happened. The 1st Vikings game was a 2 TD lead until a late TD by the Vikings closed the gap, and then the Packers fumbled it to give the Vikings a chance to tie it. Hardly a loss! By that logic, the Giants close win against the Dolphins and their 14 point comeback vs. the Skins should be losses, and the Packers loss to the Bears should be a win because they handed the game to the Bears on a silver platter. The Packers 4-5 in the NFC? LOL LOL LOL!

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I assume you wanna bet on the Packers?

I don't call all close games as losses I just think in most cases they played a game, they deserved to lose, they got lucky / refs helped them out (not on purpose).

Surely you understand why everytime the Broncos and Packers play the fumble happens on the goaline about 2% of the time? That is what I call good variance for the Packers.

So, who won the Chargers Colts game? The Chargers won, who deserved to win? The Colts. If they play again the Colts will still be a heavy favorite.

Record does not speak volumes about how good a team is.

I still think the Packers are the 3rd best in the NFC. They are simply not as good as the Cowboys or Giants. They are far from an elite team in this league, and I think they will lose to the Giants even at home in the playoffs. (if they were to play).

[tdarko]

Pokerfink,

Please don't twist what I say, I never said that an emotion in a locker room is predictive of anything on the field--all I said is that their emotion in the locker room is a pretty good indicator of what happened on the field and if anyone knows what happened on the field it is the players not you or FO.

If you have read some of my previous posts I don't care that the +1/2 doesn't mean anything to me b/c I have WATCHED games in which that particular game sneaked under the blowout criteria within the last couple minutes of the game.

Sure, 3 point games are fuzzy as hell--but just as fuzzy as three point games are, so are blowouts b/c BOTH teams play completely different once the game is decided.

I talked with JoA about this for awhile and I am still not convinced--this is an exaggeration but how is beating a 5-11 team by 300 points better than beating a 12-4 team by a FG? The way the game was played at a certain point during that blowout doesn't even matter. There are sloppy games each week in the NFL where one team houses another team and by the end of the third it looks like they are walking through the game w/ two goals, trying not to get injured and trying to just get to the locker room--so the scores of these games really matter? wtf?

Sure, blowouts mean a team is good--I don't think anyone is arguing that, I just don't think that routing a poor team or sub .500 teams means a whole lot or any more than beating a good team.

I mean a poor Phi team blew out an ok Det team and went on to get worked after that--it wasn't predictive of anything.

Anyway, the way that I look at it is blowing out poor teams isn't greater than barely beating good teams (I mean can we all agree that it is harder to beat better teams?) but barely beating bad teams is a good indication of future success or lack thereof.

[PokerFink]

I mean, if you've already talked about it with JoA, and you've already read the article, what more can I say? The proof is there. If you don't want to believe it, that's up to you.

[GBP04]

You really just haven't seen enough of the Packers, Bill. I can't think of any other explanation. By the way, let someone who has seen your game revise your "list" (even though part of being a good team is winning close games).

The Eagles game we did get lucky, but that was the first game of the season - we are a different team now.

Your week 4 Vikings analysis is just flat out uninformed. The Packers went to the Metrodome and pretty handily beat the Vikings - only a few last minute drives and a Packer fumble made it close.

Your formula starts to show some bias at the week 5 Bear game. If you are going to start calling Packer wins losses, then you have to call this one a win. The Packers pretty much dominated this game - two redzone James Jones fumbles and an own-redzone idiotic interception by Favre account for all of this loss.

Week 6 Redskins, I will even concede a loss in this game as well, even though if anything, the teams played equally in this game.

Week 8 Broncos - The Packers went on the road and played well this game. I don't see how you can call this a loss. If the Broncos would not have fumbled on the 2 yard line, the entire game would have played out completely differently.

Week 9 Chiefs - The game was closer than the score indicates, but it was still another good sound road win.


By my counting, the Packers are around 7-2, which does seem about right. 4-5 is just biased and ridiculous.

[kyro]

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Well you seem to rank a team that deserves to be 4-5 (packers) at (2nd) place? in the NFC so 4th dosnt sound too crazy to me.

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Wow. This is one of the more insane things I've read on this forum. Bill, I will be PMing you if the Giants and Packers play in the playoffs and we can make a nice bet.

[dkgojackets]

He's right, Saints are clearly better than the Packers. You just have to ignore what happens during the games.

[capone0]

I had my doubts about the Pack, but they have looked very good lately. You can't really ignore them now. They are winning and winning considerably in all their games. Favre is playing amazing well. Their D is outstanding. They might have the best corner combo in the NFL and that's hard to say with Woodson being out there.

They have a great D-line. Good LBers. Can't believe they have turned it around so fast. This looked like a team going nowhere early last year and they haven't really lost since e/c a blowup against the Bears.

I think Dallas has a more impressive resume but the Pack might be just as good. Their game will be a preview of the NFC title game. The team who wins will probally have HCA throughout the NFC. I can't see the Giants, etc. coming back to take it.

[Jay Riall]

Agree completely about the points you made about the Giant's secondary, they have me going wtf every week. As it is I think Giants definitely get a Wild Card place, but if they want to progress in the playoff they are going to have to make some drastic improvments to their secondary. Hopefully Plaxico will be healed by then and performing better and Eli will show us what he is truly capable of. On plus points - the running game and pass rush has been A+.