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#1
12-17-2006, 10:19 AM
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Tough turn decision, big draw
It's been a while since I've been faced with a big decision this marginal. I have a good read on UTG+1. He almost certainly has a set here. I've seen him smooth call the flop with a set plenty of times, even on draw-heavy boards. I haven't seen him play draws aggressively very often. No read on BB.
Note that I need 29% equity for a call to be correct. Poker Stars Pot Limit Omaha Ring game Blinds: $0.50/$1 9 players Converter Stack sizes: shpongled: $250.70 UTG+1: $144.35 MP1: $110.40 MP2: $109.80 MP3: $24.90 CO: $100.85 Button: $58.50 SB: $36.25 BB: $75 Pre-flop: (9 players) shpongled is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] shpongled calls $1 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $1.5)</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, 4 folds, SB calls, BB checks. Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5, 5 players) SB checks, BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">shpongled bets $4.75</font>, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, SB calls, BB calls. Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($28.75, 5 players) SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">BB bets $25</font>, shpongled calls $25 <font color="aaaaaa">(pot was $53.75)</font>, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 raises to $127.35</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB calls all-in $44.25</font>, shpongled folds. Uncalled bets: $58.1 returned to UTG+1. River: K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($192.25, 1 player + 1 all-in - Main pot: $192.25) Results: Final pot: $192.25 
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#2
12-17-2006, 11:11 AM
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Re: Tough turn decision, big draw
shpongled,
I don't understand why you are asking a question here. You worked out the equity you need, have a read that your pair of threes is not good right now (though it might be against the BB if he only has a total wrap on the flop), and so all that remains is to determine what your equity is likely to be. I presume the only reason you are having a problem doing so is in knowing how many potential outs actually are good. And being a regular poster you should know how to discount some of those outs against X number of potential opponents. In this particular example I would discount any 6 except the 6 of hearts as the BB is likely to make a bigger straight unless he's jacking around with a worse flush draw only or was slowplaying a set himself with no backup. You might also discount at least 2 remaining 5s in case he has JT86, including the 5d. Similarly I would discount the Ad and 4d in case one has a diamond draw (pays to be a tad conservative). So that leaves, if I've counted it right, 7 non-pairing hearts, Ac/As, 4s, and one 5 for a total of 11 outs with 44 unseen cards left. You do the equity math and adjust my discounting up or down if you like, especially if you think the BB might instead have a similar hand that will be splitting some straights. Without a read on the BB, you just have to determine how conservative you want to play against an unknown and whether you think there is much possiblity such a player is in there with 654x. Finally, you might consider whether you should habitually be playing that hand with that stack in that position.
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#6
12-18-2006, 07:41 AM
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Re: Tough turn decision, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop and flop are fine, turn is absolutely awful. How on earth can you call the first bet and fold to the last? Mind exploding. [/ QUOTE ] Because a) The lead out suggests to me that he might have a made hand. I'm over 40% to win against 99xx here and almost 50% against top two (probably less than this, since all the calls on the flop suggests some of my outs are dead). b) If someone calls behind me it probably means most of my straight outs aren't good but also increases both my expressed and implied odds. There's still money left to be played, and a lot of players still in the pot, meaning there's a lot of situations in which I'll get paid off on the river if I hit. In contrast, with the second bet I have zero implied odds, which makes it a *much* different decision. The whole thing that makes this hand difficult is that it looks to me that both players in the pot have made hands. One leads out in a situation where he probably has little fold equity, and another, who I'm almost certain has a set, raises. If this is the case then I am in incredibly good shape, over 40% to win. However, if one of them ends up having even a decent straight draw, I don't have the right price to call, although it's marginal because a straight is still likely to give me the side pot.
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#7
12-18-2006, 07:43 AM
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Re: Tough turn decision, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
Preflop and flop are fine, turn is absolutely awful. How on earth can you call the first bet and fold to the last? Mind exploding. [/ QUOTE ] So what would you have done on the turn?
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#8
12-18-2006, 08:57 AM
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Re: Tough turn decision, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
I don't have the right price to call, although it's marginal because a straight is still likely to give me the side pot. [/ QUOTE ] This makes no sense. Firstly if there was no side pot you would be in even better shape, you are unlikely to be ahead in the side pot. Secondly you have the nut flush draw and a decent straight draw in a multiway pot, of course you are priced in.
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#9
12-18-2006, 09:33 AM
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Re: Tough turn decision, big draw
No, I would be in worse shape with no side pot. That's always the case, because my expectation for the side pot is always greater than my expectation for the main pot. There's no way I could be further ahead in the main pot than the side pot. In a situation like this with everyone all in and you last to act, the presence of a side pot means you're ALWAYS in a better situation than if there was just a main pot.
For example, in this situation I calculated my expectation to be +/- $20 depending on the holdings of my opponents (assuming UTG+1 has a bare set). My expectation would be between -$40 to $20 if the same amount of money was just in a main pot.
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#10
12-18-2006, 09:44 AM
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Re: Tough turn decision, big draw
[ QUOTE ]
Secondly you have the nut flush draw and a decent straight draw in a multiway pot, of course you are priced in. [/ QUOTE ] If BB has any decent straight-flush combination I am in the range of 18-25% to win and don't have the right price. I mostly curious what people with more experience would do in this situation, so I guess you've answered that. I don't think a call is automatic though.
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