How useful do you find combinations ?

[knockonwood]

hero has 8h8s, the board is 7h9s10s.

You call in on the button and both blinds fold. Villain bets into you on the flop.

Most likely hands from villain are AA,KK,QQ,JJ,AK and 50% of the time AQ.

So, the odds are the odds that he has you beat (with an overpair) are 24:24, or 1:1. (there are 24 combinations of high pairs and 16+8=24 combinations of the Ace high hands)

We are 1:1,`so we should stay in the hand (for the time being)

How many of you compute these sort of combinations when in a hand?

[knockonwood]

edit - villain raised UTG

[AKQJ10]

At the table? Never. I think about what kinds of hands my opponent has, and have a vague intuitive sense (for example, if I see two cards of a certain rank then a set is possible but unlikely).

In post mortem, I look at combinations all the time to hone my at-the-table intuition.

[AlanBostick]

If the villain raised before the flop and that's the range of hands I put her on, then my crappy small pocket pair goes into the muck faster than you can say "wrong price."

[allenciox]

Sorry, Alan, but this is just plain wrong. This is what you need to look at:

1) What is the prior distribution of hands my opponent could have had? This is where the combinations come into play.

2) Multiply each of these hands based on his preflop actions --- hands and probability? For example, you might have noticed that this opponent usually makes extra-large raises with middle pairs but this time he made a normal-sized raise. You can't discount entirely discount they have a middle pair this time, but it is significantly reduced.

3) Then modify this probability based on their flop actions --- in this case, that they led into you.

4) Then figure out what your probability of winning the hand is.

A lot to figure out, yes? That's why you just approximate it based on work away from the table.

In this case, say you estimate that there is 50% chance that you are ahead and 50% that you are behind. The good news is that you have most likely at least 8 outs if you are behind, meaning that you are at worst 2:1 to win this hand if it goes to the end, and likely much better than that. This is a clear case for a raise. There is no way I muck my hand here.

[AKQJ10]

You should also think about Reverse implied odds. Of course this is pretty hard to do since OP didn't give stack sizes, so I'll assume medium stacks of at least 5 times the pot.

Villain is relatively unlikely to pay another cent with unimproved overcards, but relatively likely to call or raise with anything beating us. The somewhat hidden OESD helps the IO situation somewhat, but four to a straight on board makes it less likely Villain pays off.

If it's really even money whether we're best, then I can't see raising. Maybe taking a card off and hoping to stack Villain if he can't get rid of a big overpair.

Now, if effective stacks are short then IO doesn't matter. We probably have ten clear outs, surely eight, and are even money to be leading. At that point I think it's a clear call though the only justification for raising would be to charge overcards to draw out on you.

As posited, without stack sizes, there's no single clear answer. Everything in big-bet poker depends on stack sizes.

[AaronBrown]

You're doing the wrong computations. You don't care much what the other player has, you've got 10 outs (4 6's, 4 J's and 2 8's) to make a hand you're happy to bet with; otherwise you're folding. It doesn't matter whether he has AA or 32, you'll win with your outs and fold if you don't get them. That's not quite true, if the turn is 8 and the river is A or if another spade shows up, you'll worry about his hand, but for the most part it's irrelevant.

You have a 38% chance of hitting one of your outs by the river. If this is no limit, he can make it too expensive for you to draw out, although remember he can't know you didn't start with TT, 99 or 77. So you might have a play here.

In limit, there's 3.25 big bets in the pot. It will cost you 1.5 big bets to see the river card (one small and one big bet). This is certainly +EV.

Worrying about what the other guy holds leads to passive play. Usually it's more important what he thinks you hold.

[AKQJ10]

Is that directed at me or at allencoix?

I'm more or less agreeing with you, assuming fairly deep stacks. But allencoix's approach is entirely appropriate if, for example, the flop bet puts Villain all-in.

[AlanBostick]

I don't know how the villain acts after after the flop before the flop, do I?

If that's the range I put the PF raiser on, I'm not getting the right price to call; raising is fool hardy. I muck my hand before the flop.

[AKQJ10]

You fold 88 to preflop aggression regardless of stack size???

Then again, I've been guilty of something that usually drives me crazy when others do it: assuming we're talking no-limit. I actually have no idea what betting structure this is, so it's absurd to evaluate courses of action.