Hand reading exercise from hand at featured table in Day 1B of ME

[allenciox]

Hero is me with about 10k. Villian is sitting directly to the left of me: top pro Randy Jensen (you have probably seen him on TV on WPT) who has been playing very loosy goosey, making a lot of calls preflop with position on the preflop raiser. I have been playing somewhat loose, but not nearly as loose as Randy. He has about 23k in chips after doubling up when someone played back at him when he really had a hand.

It is Round 1 with blinds at 25/50. Try to figure out what hand I had and what hand villian had from the following:

The hand is folded around to me in the hijack, I make it 150 to go. Villian coldcalls in the cutoff, everyone else folds.

The flop (pot=T375)comes T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet 250. Villian calls.

Turn (pot=T875) comes 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I bet 600, Villian minraises to 1200, I raise it 2000 more, villian calls.

At this point the pot 7275, hero has a little over 6k behind.

What are your guesses for each of our hands?

Answers and analysis after a few guesses.

[DVO]

You have the nuts, something like Ad 8d.

He has 78s, not diamonds. He hit the straight on the turn but your re raise now has him worried. He still called because a set is more likely and he wants to re evaluate on the river.

Any bet from you on the river and he folds.

There are lots of other hands you both play this way but I'll go with this.

I don't think he has the nut flush. He would 4-bet that to get full value from your hand with one card to go.

I'm prepared to be very wrong here. Interesting hand.

[Requin]

I think you have a flush, he has either the A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or less likely a set.

[allenciox]

Good guess. I have the nuts, in fact it is exactly the A8 of diamonds. I thought this is really an exercise in extracting the most while not leaving myself vulnerable.

My guess since he was playing all sorts of hands was that he either hit the straight or two pair on the turn. I think his minraise was actually a very clever play to find out where he was at, and my subsequent reraise was enough to deny him implied pot odds to call if he was drawing to a four-outer. Of course, as both replies noted, it is easy to figure out I have a flush from my betting. In fact, he told me after the hand that he knew exactly what I had.

Some questions:

1) Is there any way to play the hand so that he cannot figure me for the flush here?

2) Suppose the river is a blank. What do you do?

3) What do you do if the board pairs? If you decide to check, what do you do if he goes all-in? If you lead do you call an all-in bet?

4) Should I be re-re-raising more on the turn? Would it actually be better to go all-in here? Would that look less like a made flush?

[0evg0]

I think both raising to 3200 and pushing are both okay.

[allenciox]

Ok, more info and an analysis of where I went wrong:

The river was a blank, and I thought about how much to bet. I figured he was unlikely to call an all-in on the river because he probably knew the strength of my hand but I couldn't figure out any amount I could bet that he would call. I figured that my only chance to get money out of him might be to check and have him try to bluff me out of the pot, which was, of course, ridiculous.

So I checked, he said "I know you have the flush, but I'll show you anyway" and showed down two tens --- he had hit top set on the flop. Even thought I won the hand, I kicked myself for how a very good player outplayed me here. Following are important lessons from this hand:

1) He played the hand perfectly, and I need to remember that for times when I am in the situation he was in. Note how he played the hand. He had a very good but non-nut hand on a dangerous flop. By calling the flop he was able to control the hand. If he raises the flop and I raise all-in, I could be on a combo draw --- how could he fold in that case? It is definitely right here to call the flop bet. His minraise on the turn was ingenious --- it was a great way to see whether he was beat, when I re-re-raised he knew he was. My re-re-raise looked like exactly what it was, an attempt to soak more money into the pot.

2) My rereraise did not price him out of the pot, since he had seven clean outs. If he can figure that he can get more than half the remainder of my stack on the river when the board pairs, he is correct to call here. I lucked out that the river did NOT pair the board, or I could have lost a lot here.

3) I really should consider the turn reraise all-in here. I don't think that is as informative as the 2000 raise. Perhaps he would have called the all-in reraise there figuring that there was a chance I had two pair or a smaller set and wanted to prevent him from hitting a heart if he had a bare ace.

4) In cases like this, I need to bet SOMETHING on the river. He is not going to try to bluff me when he knows how strong I am. I need to bet at least 1500-2000 here, to make the pot odds compelling enough that he will at least look me up.

All-in-all, a very interesting hand, and good lessons to learn.