22$: fold a made straight? interesting situation

[Lahmshuffle]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t60 (8 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

Button (t5825)
SB (t2160)
Hero (t2220)
UTG (t1450)
UTG+1 (t3340)
MP1 (t1410)
MP2 (t520)
CO (t3075)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">6 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t180</font>, Hero calls t120.

Flop: (t360) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t350</font>, SB calls t350.

Turn: (t1060) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">SB bets t600</font>, Hero?

[dj32]

Any read on villain? Do you think he would call your flop bet with just a gut shot draw? It feels more like he hit a pair or two pair on the flop and he's leading out on the turn so he's not bluffed off his hand.

I think a read makes all the difference here. Absent any read, I think it's a really tough spot. I probably call the turn and re-evaluate on the river in-game, but I'm not sure that's the best play.

[ssnyc]

tough spot made even toughr by being OOP...dunno what calling gets you here unless you are sure h will check the river...reads would help...QK fits all the bets which sucks...dunno...consult your magic 8 ball I guess

[dj32]

Hero has position here. I agree calling isn't great, but I think the only other option is to fold, which feels weak. I would probably check and see what villain does on the river.

I go back to villain's call on the flop. Do we really think he would call a pot sized bet with QK?

[typically]

If he had QK it wasn't a gut shot... he would have had 14 possible outs, but this still wouldn't have justified the call. He may have 88+, most of which are obviously great hands on the flop, but I suppose he would have pushed back with a set or with QQ+. Depends how much credit you give him. Most likely hand then is QK, AJ, AT, KK, AA, possibly AQ.

The turn bet is great if he's made his hand; just enough to make you think about calling... which suggests to me he's no donk.

My guess is he makes a move on the river 90% of the time if you call, so calling here just throws away chips if you don't intend to go all the way. I think it's either fold or push; EDIT: I like pushing; if those are the likely hands you're well ahead of them...

[alex-star]

I'd fold here. Methinks that you would be looking at a Qx here a lot... and maybe some sort of a combo flush draw sometimes.. but honestly I lay it down here.

[typically]

Qx may also be possible if he's the kind of guy who's been raising from the SB a lot... I said fold first, then call because I seemed to be contradicting my own logic. But my gut still says fold lol.

[Lahmshuffle]

good that you find it a difficult decision too...i think this is a "guts-decision": i had a bad feeling coz his bet was instant but this could of course be 2 pair too. I FOLDED but no idea if that was the right play! when looking back you can argue it from both sides, you find many hands that you beat and may hands that beat you...without reads, its the guts which count