Did I give away a bet?

waynethetrain · #1 01-28-2006, 01:26 PM

Was this flop bet just a spew against a 3 bettor on the flop?

Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (9 handed) converter

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, Hero raises, MP3 3-bets, 4 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, MP3 raises, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.25 BB

no1spec · #2 01-28-2006, 01:44 PM

I think I fold this preflop, MP2 is a little early to try and steal. I think check fold would be best, the only hands you are ahead of are maybe TT-QQ depending on how loose and agressive MP3 is.

kerowo · #3 01-28-2006, 01:58 PM

Fold pre-flop, the only strength this hand has so out of position is for a flush. Too early to steal, especially if you have been raising and showing down hands like this for a while at the table your pfr are going to mean very little. The flop bet is spew.

checkmate36 · #4 01-28-2006, 02:00 PM

*grunch*

A read would be helpful vs villian.

I like the way it was played.

checkmate36 · #5 01-28-2006, 02:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think I fold this preflop, MP2 is a little early to try and steal

[/ QUOTE ]

At some tables this is a good play IMO. I may be way off since I only play .25/.50 but first in from MP2 I think you have to raise. I think folding is giving up too much.

Am I the king of spew with this thinking???

bozlax · #6 01-28-2006, 02:04 PM

I'd like to see some reads, here, but saying that this is a preflop fold as a default play is weaksauce.

The flop play is totally read-dependent. After the bet, that is...I think the bet-out is necessary. Does MP3 think you're stealing? Will he bluff, especially if he's "defending"? If, for instance, he's ABC tight, or fairly passive preflop, then you can call his flop raise and check-fold the turn UI. But, this is a situation where you're going to have to play poker, and know what your opponent might be doing, and without reads you can't really do that.

waynethetrain · #7 01-28-2006, 02:04 PM

I am fairly certain the pre-flop raise was correct. It was 9-handed and there were 3 folds. K9s is a pretty good hand in that spot. The flop bet was highly suspect though. I think I just hate conceding a hand when I have a pair that good.

Nick Royale · #8 01-28-2006, 02:23 PM

There's only 13 combos AA/KK/AK/AQs, there's 9 combos of QQ/JJ/TT with a fd and there's 9 combos of QQ/JJ/TT without a fd. These combos together is 31.

9/31 = 29%

x*0.29*7.5 - (1-x*0.29)*1 = 2.5x - 1 --> x = 40%

This means that if villain folds QQ/JJ/TT 40% of the times he holds it you'll make an immediate profit by betting. So I think a flop bet is correct here. Note that you are in better shape on this flop against a preflop 3-bettor than a preflop raiser. A raiser will often hold hands such as KQ/KJ/AQ/AJ/AT, but still rarely PPs lower than 88.

If you get raised on the flop you obviously fold. If he just calls check the turn intending to fold to a bet (EDIT: Well, this is read dependant, but if he's capable of betting QQ-TT when we check there's no way we're getting to a showdown anyway since there's no chance I'm paying 2BB to do it. Against players peeling loosely on the flop I might bet/fold though). If he checks the turn I bet/fold the river.

Nick Royale · #9 01-28-2006, 02:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I am fairly certain the pre-flop raise was correct. It was 9-handed and there were 3 folds. K9s is a pretty good hand in that spot. The flop bet was highly suspect though. I think I just hate conceding a hand when I have a pair that good.

[/ QUOTE ]
I [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] raise preflop

Nick Royale · #10 01-28-2006, 02:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd like to see some reads, here, but saying that this is a preflop fold as a default play is weaksauce.

The flop play is totally read-dependent. After the bet, that is...I think the bet-out is necessary. Does MP3 think you're stealing? Will he bluff, especially if he's "defending"? If, for instance, he's ABC tight, or fairly passive preflop, then you can call his flop raise and check-fold the turn UI. But, this is a situation where you're going to have to play poker, and know what your opponent might be doing, and without reads you can't really do that.

[/ QUOTE ]
I can't see how you can find 4 outs here. If he raises he's on AK/AQ/AA/KK very often. Against these hands we have 0-5 outs against, on average 1.2 outs. And if he's on QQ/JJ/TT we still have to check/fold the turn. He won't check these hands near enough to compensate for the ~3 outs we don't have. He'll not even raise these hands often on the flop.