NL200: AK. Is it profitable to make move here?

[Akimka]

First of villain:

NL 200 is very populated on party now so no real reads on villain, only stats.

villain, 12k hands:
18/9.5/2.4 (2.8/1.8/2.3)
winrate 1.65 ptbb/100, won SD 56/went to sd 24 (wtf?).

There is a poster here so we expecting large reisolation range from him (is this reasonable?).

I think about pushing him on flop because on this kinda dry flop we maybe can make to fold 88-JJ and AK so investing 150 to try to win 100 here can be profitable.

The question is that one - is flop push best decision? What about flop fold? What about calling flop and float on the turn? Can we make him to bluff with AQ this way?

Input is really apriciated.

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $449.40
UTG+1: $143.15
Hero: $220.75
Button: $65.85
SB: $255.15
BB: $537.69

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is CO with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG, folds, UTG+1 (poster) checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $10</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">BB raises to $28</font>, UTG+1 folds, Hero calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($59, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">BB bets $44</font>, Hero need help here.

[AggJedi]

4bet or fold preflop.

[Kilillan]

[ QUOTE ]


NL 200 is very populated on party now so no real reads on villain

[/ QUOTE ]

hidden brag?

[Melchiades]

[ QUOTE ]
4bet or fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? We are in position. There is nothing wrong with a 4-bet, but I am never ever folding here.

Give up on the flop. If you think he is light, 4-bet preflop. There are so few hands you can rep on this flop that shoves. If he folds to your shove you probably had him beat. He doesn't seem like the kind of guy who will reraise JJ and then bet/fold them on this flop.

How often would you push AA/KK here, and how often would you just call? How does villain expect you to play those hands. Would you ever do anything but call with QQ?

Don't like a float. Putting a 18/9 on a light reraise just because the situation would have been good for it, is a mistake. There is a reason he is 18/9 and not 18/15, he calls with TT and stuff here. maybe even AQ. He has a hand 95% of the time.

[AggJedi]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
4bet or fold preflop.

[/ QUOTE ]
Huh? We are in position. There is nothing wrong with a 4-bet, but I am never ever folding here.



[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously we're not folding, but folding is better than calling. So if he's going to call he might as well fold instead. I always reraise preflop.

[TimberBee]

I've never understood why this forum has to 4bet AK EVERY SINGLE TIME. I mean, sometimes, in position, there is nothing wrong with a call here against some opponents.

[thac]

[ QUOTE ]
I've never understood why this forum has to 4bet AK EVERY SINGLE TIME. I mean, sometimes, in position, there is nothing wrong with a call here against some opponents.

[/ QUOTE ]

Because if you hit your ace or king and get into a big pot, you're most likely behind.. bunch of RIO [censored] I guess.

[PartysOver]

correct.

hard to get value from hands after you hit your hand. the phrase "put you on AK" is around for a reason. you're ussually getting your stack in close to dead or splitting (there are times when villain has complete air or ax, but not enough)

and a 4b makes it so easy to play and is +ev

[Veron]

If callin in position with AK is the right play depends on villain's 3betting range. If villain will squeeze here with ATs+ AJo+ calling with AK is very profitable because your implied odds are very good if an A flops.

In this situation I really prefer a 4bet preflop though, and as played I fold the flop.

[Melchiades]

Also the whole reverse implied odds doesn't really hold. He will c-bet most A-high flops with most of his range. Free money. Sometimes we get stacked on K high flops, lots of time we pick up his 44 dollar cbet on those same flops. Sometimes he tilts and can't get away from whatever he has without putting in a fair amount of money even with one overcard. Calling is perfectly fine, although its better against players thats a bit more active than this dude preflop.