Hero folds?

[Xhad]

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if you're up against 3 gutshots that's around 26% in cumulative equity.

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And if 3 gutshots overcall the potsize has nearly doubled. Risking losing 4BB 26% of the time vs. winning 3BB 74% of the time sounds like a good deal to me.

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if your raise mangages to fold another ace you gain the equity of 2 king outs, 4 queen outs and 2 ace outs(that's 17% equity).

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Except you don't lose the entire pot against those hands so it's functionally more like half that.

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if your raise folds out a pp, a gutshot and another ace you've gained their 30% in equity

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At the expense of 3BB! That's a lot compared to what you're protecting. And that's assuming more than one of the opponents behind you is even drawing live, often they're not.

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on the flip side, planning on folding to a 3bet is giving up 5% of your equity the times your against trips or a FH.

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There's also a non-negligible chance you get 3bet by an A that sucks at poker.

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when the pot gets a certain size, it is more to your benefit to win it immediately

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Agree but if you think 4-6BB is worth protecting from 2 and 4 outers you need to rethink your math.

[Xhad]

ok, so I slept and sobered up and it occured to me that in my last post I trusted some numbers thrown around in this thread, and shouldn't have because they're completely unrealistic...the only straight draw on this board is the broadway gutshot, and it's a 2 card draw in every case. This means that in the oh-so-scary nightmare scenario where everyone is drawing to a gutshot, they can have at most 8 outs total, in the event that one has QJ, one has QT, and one has JT (remember, a J is in our hand so QT is a 2 outer). The rest of the time they have even less because 2 of them have the same hand.

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 89.041% 89.14% 00.00% 296876 0.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 03.646% 02.13% 01.52% 7096 5061.50 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 03.649% 02.15% 01.50% 7162 5005.00 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 3: 03.663% 02.17% 01.50% 7220 4994.50 { QTo+, JTo }

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[ QUOTE ]
Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 87.498% 87.50% 00.00% 546508 0.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 05.001% 05.00% 00.00% 31237 0.00 { QJo }
Hand 2: 02.529% 02.53% 00.00% 15797 0.00 { QTo }
Hand 3: 04.972% 04.97% 00.00% 31053 0.00 { JTo }

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What if they aren't sharing draws? What if someone has a pocket pair for the 2-outer and the other has Ax with a relevant kicker?

[ QUOTE ]
Board: Ah Kc Kd 7s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.162% 70.31% 07.86% 658214 73559.00 { AdJh }
Hand 1: 08.979% 08.98% 00.00% 84063 0.00 { QTo+, JTo }
Hand 2: 05.002% 05.00% 00.00% 46830 0.00 { 88 }
Hand 3: 07.857% 00.00% 07.86% 0 73559.00 { A9o }

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Just for fun, in this case if we assume that everyone folds to your raise (including turn bettor) if you raise, but overcalls if you call, then the EV of calling vs raising is (.78)(2) - (.22)(6.25), or +.185BB. And again keep in mind that I basically handpicked the worst possible combination of hands that could be out against you other than boats and trips. Trying to protect on this turn is pretty lol.

[James.]

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if you're up against 3 gutshots that's around 26% in cumulative equity.

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And if 3 gutshots overcall the potsize has nearly doubled. Risking losing 4BB 26% of the time vs. winning 3BB 74% of the time sounds like a good deal to me.

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the gutshot example.
pot is 5.25bb after guy bets, if we raise, the other gutters fold and he calls(neglecting our investment) the pot is 6.25bb. he doesn't put in another bet UI. we win that 6.25bb around 90% which equals about 5.63bb.

if the hypothetical 3 gutshots call the turn the pot will be(not including our investment) 7.25bb. we have .74 equity*7.25bb= 5.37bb.

[ QUOTE ]
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if your raise folds out a pp, a gutshot and another ace you've gained their 30% in equity

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At the expense of 3BB! That's a lot compared to what you're protecting. And that's assuming more than one of the opponents behind you is even drawing live, often they're not.

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on the turn it's an immediate cost of 2bb. odds are the original bettor calls with his 2-8 outer so we still gain at least the other bb from him and i'm sure he'll pay off a river bet with a worse ace most of the time.

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Agree but if you think 4-6BB is worth protecting from 2 and 4 outers you need to rethink your math.

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if you don't think a 6bb pot is worth protecting against as many as 6-14 cumulative outs i'm not the only one who needs to "rethink my math".

and Xhad, this all started when BBB said raisefolding the turn was "horrible". my REAL point was that it wasn't horrible and in some instances preferable. in turn, i'm not saying calling is horrible. if it was HU or maybe even 3handed it would certainly change things.

[Xhad]

Nice. I make one post drunk, then come back and do a sober one with some hard math and which one do you respond to?

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odds are the original bettor calls with his 2-8 outer so we still gain at least the other bb from him and i'm sure he'll pay off a river bet with a worse ace most of the time.

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And you can't get that river bet if you call?

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if you don't think a 6bb pot is worth protecting against as many as 6-14 cumulative outs i'm not the only one who needs to "rethink my math".

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It might be when one person was the one holding all of those outs. It's not when those outs are coming from 3 people put together. Also, your opponents never have 14 outs worth of equity, ever. They couldn't have that many if you handpicked their ranges which I thought I already demonstrated above.

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and Xhad, this all started when BBB said raisefolding the turn was "horrible". my REAL point was that it wasn't horrible and in some instances preferable.

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I might respect your argument if it were from a value angle; from the looks of it IF we're ahead we have around 80% equity at the worst. "Let's protect from 2-outers" is not an argument for raising though.

[James.]

sorry Xhad,

didn't see your second post. i'm at work and i get pulled away from a response, lose my train of thought, go back to it and try to piece it together and usually have a tough time relating my original point because i've lost track of what i was trying to say. i also miss any responses that might have been made when i had the "respond to" window open. i'm aware of our equity. that's not my point.

i'll try to expound later.

[ProfessorBen]

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raisefolding the turn is horrible

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Xhad's analysis is pretty baller.

[KitCloudkicker]

curious that no one has really responded to OP's original question.

OP against this player you can call the river. against most players this is a river fold after the CR.

[silkyslim]

I bet flop, raise turn, fold river