Northwestern/Nevada

[BobJoeJim]

Just one game today, so it clearly needs its own thread. After my success yesterday, I feel compelled to do a similar in-depth analysis of this game. Here's what I came up with:

Northwestern:
@ Miami (OH) - W, 21-3
vs. New Hampshire - L, 34-17
vs. E. Michigan - W, 14-6

The home loss to 1-AA New Hampshire is what pops out first, but the wins over Miami and Eastern Michigan (both 0-3) are almost as unimpressive. Miami has a semi-decent passing attack, due entirely to receiver Ryne Robinson who has 26 catches for 366 yards in three games, but can't run the ball at all with 2.8 ypc. Northwestern barely outgained them, and the 21-3 margin included a blocked punt for a TD. The EMU game confirmed that Northwestern indeed does not have a capable offense, although the defense was very sharp. If you're pinning your hopes on the defense, though, remember they allowed New Hampshire's Ricky Santos to go 18/24 passing for 206 yards and two TDs, while the offense turned it over three times.

The offensive stats are 106.2 rating for QB Mike Kafka, and 5.0 yards per carry as well, with 5.6 ypc for running back Tyrell Sutton. They look decent but you have to remember the competition. Overall, Northwestern is 2-1, with some semi-bright spots, but given the teams they've played, they definitely aren't *good* even by mid-major standards. Don't think of this as a "Big Ten team," because that is not their caliber of play.

Nevada:
@ Fresno State - L, 28-19
@ Arizona State - L 52-21
vs. Colorado State - W, 28-10

RB Robert Hubbard has 262 yards (5.1 per carry), and senior QB Jeff Rowe, a three year starter has a 63.5% completion rate and a 130 rating, making this offense by far the best Northwestern will have seen to date.

The Fresno state was tight throughout, and Nevada played the Bulldogs mostly even, before eventually succumbing to Dwayne Wright's 158 yards and 3 TDs, which is hard to be too ashamed of since he also posted 154 on Oregon and 136 on Washington. At ASU they got destroyed by Rudy Carpenter, and ended up in comeback mode so early that the rest of the stats are pretty meaningless. Against Colorado State, though, they showed what they can do against a team with no star players. They held the Rams to a FG offensively (a blocked punt gave them their TD), allowing 4.3 yards per pass and 2.7 yards per carry. Meanwhile Rowe hit 19/22 passes for 210 yards and two TDs.

My take:
Because the schedules played are so different, it's a little hard to know where these two teams stand. NW has looked decent at times, but against nobody. They probably suck, but there's no way to be sure they haven't just been playing down to the competition. Nevada has looked vulnerable, but only against good opponents with star players. I'm pretty sure that Nevada is actually a decent team, fully capable of laying a convincing beating on a bad team at home, and I think Northwestern qualifies as bad. I like Nevada -7 here enough to have a unit on it, that I put down several days ago. I wouldn't bet the farm, though, I feel there is some uncertainty here. I see this being a 28-17 type game, so that would leave me with a very slight lean toward under 47, but no interest in betting it. Nevada -7 is the best play here and probably worthwhile even beyond any compulsive need you may have to get action on the only game of the day.

[mulebennett]

One minor detail to consider:

[ QUOTE ]
Nevada ranks dead last in net punting in the Western Athletic Conference stats, averaging a little more than 25 yards a kick, and eighth in gross punting at 33 yards per kick.

That's why Zach Whited was given an opportunity to kick against Colorado State last weekend after Tom Barcia punted the first two games. Whited had his first attempt blocked, and CSU recovered it in the end zone for its only touchdown of the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that this is a huge thing to worry about, but Northwestern will face good field position every time Nevada can't score.

[BobJoeJim]

[ QUOTE ]
One minor detail to consider:

[ QUOTE ]
Nevada ranks dead last in net punting in the Western Athletic Conference stats, averaging a little more than 25 yards a kick, and eighth in gross punting at 33 yards per kick.

That's why Zach Whited was given an opportunity to kick against Colorado State last weekend after Tom Barcia punted the first two games. Whited had his first attempt blocked, and CSU recovered it in the end zone for its only touchdown of the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that this is a huge thing to worry about, but Northwestern will face good field position every time Nevada can't score.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good info, I always forget to look at special teams. It's so easy, yet so foolish, to ignore. I still like Nevada -7, but feel less comfortable now than I did before you pointed this out.

[mulebennett]

sorry BJB, i like your analysis a lot, i just stumbled upon that article when i was reading up on NW and Nevada football. that thing kinda worries me

[Shakes]

On the total, keep in mind that this game opened 54.5 at pinnacle and went all the way down to 46.5 before coming back up to 47/47.5 today. The value in the under is probably gone. There may be value in the over at this point.

This feels like a real coin toss to me. Neither team has shown significant quality. If anybody wants to play Nevada, you might see 6.5 at pinnacle by gametime. I believe 6 -115 can be had at skybook right now.

[Shakes]

I have to revise my earlier statement. All of the touts so far seem to be on either Nevada or the under, so you probably won't see 6.5 on a consistent basis again. I'm going to wait to see if I can get 7.5.

[MicroBob]

Think I agree with the analysis in general.

Miami (my alma-mater) lost at home last week to Kent State even though they were 14 point favorites.
So Northwestern's win at Miami to start the season should really be viewed skeptically.

NW didn't have a lot of offense against Eastern Michigan. 158 yds rushing at 3.7 avg could have been worse. But wasn't that impressive.
and this is an Eastern Michigan team that had allowed 38 points to Ball State and 52 points to Michigan State.


NW impresses me very little whereas Nevada does seem to be half-decent so NEV -7 seems like an okay play here to me as well.

[mulebennett]

i made a correlated teaser parlay, nevada +0.5 and under 53. halftime, nevada's up 10 but the under might be trouble in the 2nd half.

[mulebennett]

wow, looks like i was wrong about Whited. 3 punts, 49 yd average, 2 inside the 20. and he just booted one down to the 6 yard line. dayum

[Homer]

[ QUOTE ]
i made a correlated teaser parlay, nevada +0.5 and under 53. halftime, nevada's up 10 but the under might be trouble in the 2nd half.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why is this correlated?