Variance

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ggbman,

Utterly fantastic post. It should be stickied on every poker forum. It's really true that you can't wrap your mind around what happens during one of these ridiculous downswings unless you've been through it. Believe me, I wish I was still naive...

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[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
So it's fully possible that bk is not currently a winning 10/20 player, and to say that because I suggest this I dont understand variance is ridiculous. [/b]

[/ QUOTE ]

You could say I'm not a winning 100/200 online player would be reasonable at least and possibly true.

But 10/20? Get a grip on reality.

You don't understand [censored] if you think that, not just variance.

[PartyGirlUK]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So it's fully possible that bk is not currently a winning 10/20 player, and to say that because I suggest this I dont understand variance is ridiculous. [/b]

[/ QUOTE ]

You could say I'm not a winning 100/200 online player would be reasonable at least and possibly true.

But 10/20? Get a grip on reality.

You don't understand [censored] if you think that, not just variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant speak for your particular case as I havent seen you play.

The guy I talk of on absolute would have been a winning player at 100/200 when I first played with him, and now is a solid donater in the 75 and 150 games. So it's possible.

[ggbman]

Dean,

After reviewing my post, i think some of it may of come off as a bit belittling, which i apologize for. I do however, stand behind the content. You can toys with some numbers here
to get a better grasp of ROR with various WR's and standard deviations.

IMO, and i don't mean this to be offensive, but you are being too stubborn with arguing that people lose due to exclusivley bad play or w/e. Toy around with numbers in that link and see how much variance can account for with some people. It's a ton. If you talk to most anyone who knows me at all, they will affirm that i am more critical of my own game than my opponents by a factor of 10. I think the gap between the way i play most of the time and what i am capable of is certainly not minute. But at the same time, i don't throw around the term "A game" as lightley as most either. My B+ is good enough to beat mid limits for 1.5 BB/100 and be a smallish winner in decent high limit games. I would guess that my A game would be good for 2.5 in mid limits and 1-1.5 in good high limit games. There is no way to prove that, that is just my intuition. During certain stretched over the course of the year did i play worse? Of course! But you need to understand i evaluate on my own play very critically and nowhere near as much of those 150k hand stretched or 500 BB downers in 2 days were tilt as people would like them to be so that they can sleep better at night.

Look dude, you are obviously a very good player. A very good player. So why would you worry so much about this stuff? Eventually you will encounter running
much worse than you have so far in your career. At the same time, I am VERY confident that you will make it through that stretch when it happens. You get more used to it, more seasoned, and it affects you less and less. eventually you see it all. Play with confidence, remain critical of your own play in a productive manner, and strive to improve. That's all that can be done. The reason i made that post wasn't so ppl could point out "Oh, GGBMAN said a 1000 BB downswing could be pure variance, it's not my play!" It's so that thinking players like yourself can actually have a valid reference point and stay sane during those stretches, improve their play, and not get overly down on themselves.

Gabe

[bicyclekick]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So it's fully possible that bk is not currently a winning 10/20 player, and to say that because I suggest this I dont understand variance is ridiculous. [/b]

[/ QUOTE ]

You could say I'm not a winning 100/200 online player would be reasonable at least and possibly true.

But 10/20? Get a grip on reality.

You don't understand [censored] if you think that, not just variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant speak for your particular case as I havent seen you play.

The guy I talk of on absolute would have been a winning player at 100/200 when I first played with him, and now is a solid donater in the 75 and 150 games. So it's possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

75/150 and 10/20 are worlds apart.

[PartyGirlUK]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So it's fully possible that bk is not currently a winning 10/20 player, and to say that because I suggest this I dont understand variance is ridiculous. [/b]

[/ QUOTE ]

You could say I'm not a winning 100/200 online player would be reasonable at least and possibly true.

But 10/20? Get a grip on reality.

You don't understand [censored] if you think that, not just variance.

[/ QUOTE ]

I cant speak for your particular case as I havent seen you play.

The guy I talk of on absolute would have been a winning player at 100/200 when I first played with him, and now is a solid donater in the 75 and 150 games. So it's possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

75/150 and 10/20 are worlds apart.

[/ QUOTE ]

I should have clarified. I dont think he would beat 10/20 right now.

[PartyGirlUK]

Oh I dont know how many hands of lhe I have btw, but its less than half a mill.

[ggbman]

Right... i mean FWIW i think _1_ had something like 500k+ hands at 10-20 at 2-3 BB/100 before breaking even for something like 150k hands. He can clarifying if that's of, but you see what i mean about how it just happens eventually.

[SA125]

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What if your name is BicycleKick and you've got over a million hands and dollars that say you're a great player?

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He was used as OP's example. I know nothing about BK's situation. I was talking about 1200 BB slides for the masses, as I think OP's point was about.

In general, they say two things. You are what your record says you are and you're never as good or bad as you think.

If I won a million I'd feel like a great player. If I then lost 1200 BB's, I think I'd feel a lot differently and I think rightfully so.

[LazyD]

great post. I've had one losing month in 3 yrs. and that included an 1100 BB ds. I was 8 tabling party 50 hrs/week for 8 weeks earning their stupid bonus promotion in March, '06. My game was A+ (ya right) Beat: my bonus covered 250 BB.