Variance

[PartyGirlUK]

A winning regular in the Stars higher stakes game claimed to have had 450bb downswings each of the past two months. Each time he was playing his A+ game throughout. He also hinted that he believes 1200bb downswings such as BK's are possible for winning players.

This is very scary for me. My biggest ever downswing is about 270bb. A decent amount of that was tilt. So it would be about 240 or so without excess tilt, at a guess. For that to happen it was insane beats, hand after hand after hand, just unreal. So a 450bb downswing would be all that insanity, followed by the same insanity over again, with baring a comeback in between. It just seems so unlikely.

Part of the reason my swings havent been so severe is because I have a big edge, my lifetime rate is more than 2bb/100. While I think that winrate might be possible at 100/200, I am not good enough right now to achieve it. So with lower edge, and more aggro games, one can expect bigger downswings. But 450bb still seems ridiculous, and if you look at the math, it should be incredibly uncommon for a winning player.

I know another player who has been playing high stakes for a couple of years now and his biggest ds is about 250bb, which seems much more reasonable.

So please either soothe my fears or let me know what I am in for, as a 450bb downswing would make me go crazy.