SHOULD I JUST LET THIS GO, stars 200plo8

[GaZaZaZa]

playing the 200plo8 game on stars 6 handed... first villian typical nitty player, second villian is a donk who is also on mega tilt, in for at least $700 in the 20 minutes ive been on the table, i staked him the previous hand when he shoved with top two on a 2-5-7 board with two clubs, he had no re-draws, his hand was 5-7-j-k, which he called to a raise, i had a-4-5-5!!! :-)

anyway to the hand.. i raise to $7 in early position with a-a-k-4 (no suits), my stack is btw $442 nit has $140ish, and fish has a fresh $200 on the table...so yes, both the nit and the fish call and everyone else folds, so $24 in pot...

flop comes t-j-q with two hearts... i bet pot, nit insta calls.. and fish re-pots.....

whats my move hear??? who hear re-shoves and who hear lets this one go???

[kingmack]

Nit has set or lower str8. The range of the fish is so wide you can't worry about him considering you have the nuts for now. If I'm freerolling the fish by some miracle here so be it. If you fold this hand considering the amount already in the pot you shouldn't be playing the game.

[garcia1000]

Ugh, stacks are too shallow, 3-handed incl. a bad player, just shove.

[Buzz]

Gazazaza – If your read is correct and one player is a nit, then the nit probably has the same nut straight as you, and perhaps with redraws (which you don’t have). Perhaps he doesn’t raise because, rightly or wrongly, he doesn’t want to lose the fish. Or perhaps the nit doesn’t raise because he has no redraws (and then the fish might be drawing for the board to pair or flush). Or maybe the nit just doesn’t believe you.

It’s impossible to know what the fish holds. But the three of you holding an ace-king two-card combination is not far fetched (even though you do hold two of the aces). Ace-king is one of the more popular two-card combinations, not as popular as ace-deuce, but still very popular. It’s one of my own favorite two-card combinations. (What’s not to like about it?)

Thus if your read is correct, probably the best you can do is split the main pot with one opponent, probably the nit, chopping up the fish in the process, and taking the $60 side pot from the fish.

Maybe both opponents have the nut straight and possibly with redraws (which you don’t have). If so the best you can do is get your own money back and the worst you can do is lose two hundred bucks if the fish sucks out.

If fish has random cards and is running a blatant bluff, you’re ahead. Or if one of them has the same straight and the other has only two pairs and nobody has a flush draw, then you’re slightly ahead.

But it one of them has the same straight and the other merely has either a set or the nut flush draw, you’re way behind.

It comes down to whether the fish is bluffing or betting purely stupidly or not.

The fact that the fish has $60 more than the nit, and you don't have to split that with the nit if you win pushes the scales in the direction of calling. But the fact that you're going to hate the next decision if the board flushes or pairs on the turn pushes the scales in the direction of folding.

Tough decision. Raising seems unwise. There's no rush to get your money in, because nit isn't going away if he holds the same nut straight as you and you'll just lose him if he doesn't. And Fish will be more sucked in if you just call.

But to call or fold...

No one can make the decision but you, because you're the only one who knows the fish.

Tough decision.

Buzz

[franknagaijr]

This is a 'fold and kick yourself later' for a weak-tighty like me.

[van_exel_fan]

If fish is playing 57KJ and shoving 572 flop then he can easily have like KQJX or K9XX or 89XX w/ 2 hearts. If you are not a nit and you are thinking of folding AK due to no redraws then maybe nit will fold when you shove and you can go heads up as a big favorite against the fish's range. It is also slightly significant that you have 2 of the A's as it makes two other AK's out there very unlikely.

[Jorge10]

The nit had one of two things, the nut straight or a really good draw. I would just call and shove any blank turn. If you shove now the nit is getting a good price for his draw. I dont like giving people good prices on draws.

[GaZaZaZa]

hmm.. so you guys think calling is prob the way to go and shoving on a safe turn card... i really dont like doing that since if the turn does come a flush card or a reapeter then what do i do....the nit isnt tricky so he will bet only if he hits (at least thats my STRONG READ), but what do i do when bad card hits, i check, he checks and fish shoves(i can tell u now,, if that senario happens, i AINT FOLDING!!!)??? I rather just make my decision here and now, and at least if they are drawing make them somewhat pay... Also the one other thing that generally makes me opt to push this,,, is that the fish is trully that, a MEGA FISH, and is ontilt.. my thinking is that like most fish by nature play there strong hands weak... so if he did flop the nuts and has a bet and a call to him already, and especially that his is chasing his losses he might not want to raise to "lose customers", the fact that he is raising makes me think that he most prob has a drawing hand,,, like k-q-x-x with maybe clubs.....

its the nit that worries me!!!! it really makes me feel sick seeing him have a-k with flush draw, then spiking it on the river, and my pc can only take soo much of a bashing, its already on its last legs!!!

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
its the nit that worries me!!!! it really makes me feel sick seeing him have a-k with flush draw, then spiking it on the river, and my pc can only take soo much of a bashing!!!

[/ QUOTE ]Gazazaza - Yes.

Think of it this way. If the nit does have the same Broadway as you, and if the nit raised your $24 bet to $24*4=$96, and if the fish folded, then starting from where you're faced with the raise, you'd be playing to get your own $31 back plus $5.00 from the pot after the first betting round (half the pot contributed by everyone other than you and nit, who both get your own money back it you split).

You'd be risking $140-$31=$109 to possibly win $36. Assuming Nit has a redraw to a full house or flush, roughly 80% you win $36 and 20% you lose $109 (something like that).

.8*36-.2*109 = $28.8-$21.8 = +$7.0 = e.v. (Your e.v. is positive).

Looks like you have a good call.

But since you're matching dollar for dollar with nit, if you raise yourself, you don't gain any of the money that is already in the pot. (That belongs to whoever is destined to win the pot).

.8*0-.2*109 = -$21.8 = e.v. (Your e.v. is negative with the raise).

Thus if Nit raised and Fish dropped out, you would have favorable e.v. or odds or whatever you want to call it to call a bet, but not favorable e.v. or odds to initiate fresh money into the pot.

I'm not sure that I've made it clear, but basically this would be one of those situations where, because of the money already in the pot, you should call, but raising would be purely stupid.

That's not exactly the situation here, because Fish is still in the pot and has $60 more than Nit. Assuming the Broadway holds up, and assuming Nit also has it but Fish doesn't, you split with Nit and win an extra $60 from Fish. Or, assuming you get out-drawn by Nit, you only show a net loss of only $80 (because you get $60 back from Fish).

Tough decision. But raising is probably wrong (unless Nit isn't such a nit after all and is playing for the board to pair or flush).

Buzz

[van_exel_fan]

...but what really happened was you shoved, nit called w/ A2QQ (ace of hearts), fish called w/ 6652 and 25hh. Turn blank, river 8 of hearts and fish wins w/ his 5 high flush...