Spew, or value betting a bunch of draws?

Sean Fraley · #1 10-22-2006, 05:20 PM

I had this hand about an hour ago. At the time, I thought the play was good, but now I'm not so sure. Can someone give me a critique?

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Hold'em (10 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
1 fold, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, 3 folds, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Flop: (12 SB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls.

Turn: (12 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, UTG+2 checks, CO bets, Hero raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 calls, CO 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls, BB calls, UTG+2 calls.

River: (27 BB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB bets, BB calls, UTG+2 calls, CO calls $0.03 (All-In), Hero raises, SB 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+2 folds, Hero caps, SB calls, BB calls.

Final Pot: 40.15 BB

Results in white below: 
SB has Ah Qs (flush, king high).
BB has 4c 9c (straight, king high).
CO has 2s 8s (flush, king high).
Hero has As Jd (flush, ace high).
Outcome: Hero wins 40.15 BB.

Hielko · #2 10-22-2006, 05:27 PM

Get your calculator and you can find out yourseld if this was spew or not....

jjshabado · #3 10-22-2006, 05:44 PM

I'm guessing the flop was a bad raise. You have 3 outs to a likely split pot (so call it 1.5 outs for you), 1.5 outs to the nut flush, and call it 2 outs for any A or J given that an A gives a K a straight, and a J may not help you against a straight already out there, and a J can still lose if the flush comes.

So optimistically you have 5 outs or 10-12% chance to win the pot. Your hand is such that I don't see you buying yourself any outs by raising (flush/straight draws are all alling) So the best you can hope for is that your raise will be called by everybody (ie those people with really weak hands that are basically drawing dead against your outs stay in the hand and give you extra money).

So you're putting in 1/6 of the extra money in the pot where you're only going to win around 1/9 of the money. So I believe it was a bad raise.

On the turn I think its bad because you're facing the field with 2 big bets when you have to be pretty confident you're drawing to the 9 (I would even be tempted to call this 7 or 8 flush outs to compensate for the fact somebody likely already has a flush) flush outs, and thats it. By facing the field with 2 big bets I think you're knocking out people that you want in the hand, but not knocking out a made flush already (which you're likely up against). I'd go for the call here because if a spade comes you're almost guaranteed the nut hand (Q might give somebody a full house) so the more callers the better.

I welcome comments on this analysis. I like to know where I'm [censored] up poker theory.

btspider · #4 10-22-2006, 05:48 PM

both flop and turn are no good.

jjshabado · #5 10-22-2006, 05:48 PM

Lol, I just looked at the results. I'd be marking the CO in my favorites list. Calling the flop with a gutshot sucker straight draw and backdoor-1-card 8 high flush draw.

For that matter you have to love the BB for sticking with his [censored] ass straight that loses to any A or S.

btspider · #6 10-22-2006, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Lol, I just looked at the results. I'd be marking the CO in my favorites list. Calling the flop with a gutshot sucker straight draw and backdoor-1-card 8 high flush draw.

For that matter you have to love the BB for sticking with his [censored] ass straight that loses to any A or S.

[/ QUOTE ]

CO had two spades. BB is ridiculous tho.

jjshabado · #7 10-22-2006, 05:55 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Lol, I just looked at the results. I'd be marking the CO in my favorites list. Calling the flop with a gutshot sucker straight draw and backdoor-1-card 8 high flush draw.

For that matter you have to love the BB for sticking with his [censored] ass straight that loses to any A or S.

[/ QUOTE ]

CO had two spades. BB is ridiculous tho.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah yes. I need 4-coloured posts. I love that joke, maybe I subconciously misread the posts so I'd get to use it.

MrWookie · #8 10-22-2006, 06:00 PM

jj,

you got it right.

Sean Fraley · #9 10-22-2006, 06:03 PM

Thanks. I have begun to realize that I have a tendency to be a bit too aggressive on the flop, and I have a tendency to bet flush draws without taking a good hard look at the board. I need to start focusing on plugging these leaks.

ottsville · #10 10-22-2006, 10:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks. I have begun to realize that I have a tendency to be a bit too aggressive on the flop, and I have a tendency to bet backdoor flush draws without taking a good hard look at the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

IIRC, BDFD comes in 10/47 x 9/46 = 4.1%