High Draw Only on the Flop, $10 HU

Quanah Parker · #1 10-12-2007, 01:32 PM

This is from a 4 player, heads up.
I've made it past the 1st table, and this hand occurs early against my final opponent.
He's been aggro, but we've only played 10 hands at most when this one happens.

Pot Limit Omaha Hi/Lo
$10 + $1, 4 person HU
Blinds: $40/$80

Converter

Stack sizes:
Gyro: $3660
Pancho Villain: $2340

Pre-flop: (2 players) Gyro is SB with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Gyro calls, BB raises to $240</font>, Gyro calls.

Flop: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 10[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($480, 2 players)
Pancho Villain bets $240</font>.
Gyro?

franknagaijr · #2 10-12-2007, 04:14 PM

My general observation in PLO8 HU is that many of the players at these stakes are super aggro, and tend to go crazy with two pair or even top pair. You've got about 12 outs for high, and low is only about 10% to make it.

In case V is semi-bluffing, some kind of reraise might be appropriate here. Since this is HU, a full repot may not be necessary. I think that if you flat call here, V will pound any low turn, but V may slow down on a diamond if he has none.

However, my first impulse is to assign least a 48% chance that V has the diamonds for a semi-bluff, so you would need to proceed with caution if a diamon hits and he checks to you. Possibly you should pound the turn on any diamond or any of your true winners, if checked to. If V comes back over the top, you've still got enough chips to soldier on after folding.

Dismas · #3 10-12-2007, 05:40 PM

[ QUOTE ]

However, my first impulse is to assign least a 48% chance that V has the diamonds for a semi-bluff, so you would need to proceed with caution if a diamon hits and he checks to you. Possibly you should pound the turn on any diamond or any of your true winners, if checked to. If V comes back over the top, you've still got enough chips to soldier on after folding..

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I’d be interested to know how you came up with a least a 48% chance that he has diamonds.

[ QUOTE ]
In case V is semi-bluffing, some kind of reraise might be appropriate here. Since this is HU, a full repot may not be necessary. I think that if you flat call here, V will pound any low turn, but V may slow down on a diamond if he has none.

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Did you consider the stack sizes before writing this?

OP: The stack sizes are kinda of awkward to play poker since making a pot size reraise on the flop will commit you and villain. I don’t think just calling here is correct. I can’t see to many hands that would raise preflop OOP that have me crushed. In fact I think the worst you can be here is a 3 to 1 dog. I also think you may have some FE so I’d Reraise his flop bet and call if he pushes.

franknagaijr · #4 10-12-2007, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

However, my first impulse is to assign least a 48% chance that V has the diamonds for a semi-bluff

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I’d be interested to know how you came up with a least a 48% chance that he has diamonds.

[ QUOTE ]
In case V is semi-bluffing, some kind of reraise might be appropriate here. Since this is HU, a full repot may not be necessary. I think that if you flat call here, V will pound any low turn, but V may slow down on a diamond if he has none.

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you consider the stack sizes before writing this?

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The 48% was pulled completely out of thin air. What I'm trying to say is that I certainly don't rule out a diamond semi-bluff here, esp since hereo doesn't have 'em.

For the stack sizes, a repot on the flop or turn would be a pretty big gamble and would commit hero, yes. If we get stacked here, we're weak, but blinds are still low enough to recover this.

Dismas · #5 10-12-2007, 06:03 PM

[ QUOTE ]
For the stack sizes, a repot on the flop or turn would be a pretty big gamble and would commit hero, yes. If we get stacked here, we're weak, but blinds are still low enough to recover this.

[/ QUOTE ]

My think went along the lines of. Villain has put a 25% of his stack in when he may not even have a hand (preflop bet + c-bet) and we have a good chance to get him to fold and even if he doesn’t fold we have good odds against his calling range.