25nl; boat on turn = value?

Schiester · #1 10-10-2007, 07:09 AM

$0.25 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Villan is 41/18/1... pretty loose pf but shuts down when he doesn't hit turn.

Villan's pfr was uncharacteristically small, which made me think super-premium hand... expecting to fold a board that didn't hit me.

I bet dry flop on the basis I figured AK to be 50% of his range.

SB ($34.32)
BB ($21.50)
UTG ($23.78)
MP ($18.70)
Hero ($24.94)
Button ($26.89)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
2 folds, Hero raises to $1, Button raises to $2, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.

Flop: ($4.35) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $2.5, Button calls $2.50.

Turn: ($9.35) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $4, Button calls $4.

River: ($17.35) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $6.

Is my line a bit spewy here? I called pf because I figured he would pay off if I hit. Didn't see myself getting raised on flop against this guy.

Nemesis69 · #2 10-10-2007, 07:45 AM

Pf is good imo. I do think u're missing some value here. I bet 5 on the turn, because we got a locked hand. Button calls the turn so he is liking his hand. Let's bet $13 on river.

BishopsFinger · #3 10-10-2007, 08:34 AM

against a passive villain whom you suspect to have an overpair why are you betting so small?
he either has whiffed overs and youre unlikely to get any more money from him or an overpair - in which case he is going to be calling (probbaly) pot sized bets on all streets (unless hes weak tight). as villain here is so disinclined to raise dont bet small hoping for a raise just jam the pot - this villain probably cant get away from even 99 here so you missed great deal of value by betting so small

BishopsFinger · #4 10-10-2007, 08:37 AM

also i prefer a c/c line on this flop against your opp here.
he'll most likely cbet almost his entire range so you get value from the hands that didnt hit but youre unlikely to face subsequent bets from overcards so just c/c flop and fold to turn aggression would be my normal line if we dont improve.

Nymfh23 · #5 10-10-2007, 10:12 AM

always value bet a Boat. turn bet is to low. so is flop.

pdiggz · #6 10-10-2007, 02:05 PM

$6.50 on turn
$12-$14 on river

otherwise looks good. nice hand.

ryang · #7 10-10-2007, 04:24 PM

yeah your bet sizing is pretty bad. is this spewey? don't know why you're asking this question.

Schiester · #8 10-10-2007, 06:56 PM

[ QUOTE ]
yeah your bet sizing is pretty bad. is this spewey? don't know why you're asking this question.

[/ QUOTE ]

Until the turn I've put $6.5 into a pot where I'd give myself slim chances of actually being ahead.

Although AK is makes up 50% of the range I would guess this villan to be 3betting pf (i.e. JJ+, AKo, AKs), I would guess that at this level (and considering the raise size) it is more likely to be much lower.

i.e. JJ+:AK ; 80:20

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

142,560 games 0.094 secs 1,516,595 games/sec

Board: 6s 3h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 08.384% 08.38% 00.00% 11952 0.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 91.616% 91.62% 00.00% 130608 0.00 { JJ+ }

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

95,040 games 0.005 secs 19,008,000 games/sec

Board: 6s 3h 3c
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 75.328% 75.33% 00.00% 71592 0.00 { 88 }
Hand 1: 24.672% 24.67% 00.00% 23448 0.00 { AKs, AKo }

So at an estimate my flop equity is =

0.8*8.4 + 0.2*75 = 11.72

After reading this I think I like the line of c/c flop and bet more on next 2 streets... although this time I got lucky with a cheap look at the turn card because the villan was so passive post flop.