Novice Sports Betting Tactic that may work on the NFL

[MyTurn2Raise]

BSPs are so insanely hot on this board...must be over 60% in the time I've been here

[JasonK]

Maybe a stupid question, but why is it assumed that bad cappers will still hit ~50% over the long run?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
Maybe a stupid question, but why is it assumed that bad cappers will still hit ~50% over the long run?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because they pick games randomly.

[B00T]

because the linesmakers do the capping/thinking for you... it's like betting black or red in roulette (sort of, but not really)

[NajdorfDefense]

[ QUOTE ]
BSPs are so insanely hot on this board...must be over 60% in the time I've been here

[/ QUOTE ]

Higher, I think. Nate 2 years ago dominated.
Here's last year:

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...age=0&vc=1
[unofficial, but note public wrong on ML, ATS, and total.]

[wiper]

i was contemplating doing the same thing against chris berman this year...every year, he's below the mendoza line, but if you didn't watch every pick, you might not know it, as i once watched him, AFTER THE GAMES WERE OVER, and he was re-capping his picks, he gave himself 10 wins for picking 1 game right because his record was so horrible...

never did it, and didn't keep up with his picks, though..

[zOrO2k6]

this threat is absurd.

[CieloAzor]

Lots of people couldn't pick 50% winners if their life depended on it and most of them write for newspapers. Worse case scenario, you lose the juice.

[MyTurn2Raise]

I think OP should just set up a poll in sporting events forum that asks for an opinion on the spread for each NFL game

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is this lady likely doesn't have the intelligence to make her a BSP which, ironically, puts her above BSP status.

A BSP knows just enough about the game to make him focus on the wrong things and make the idiotic, popular pick. This old lady doesn't even key in on that.

Also, the juice will kill. Another key to BSPs is they focus on the 1 to 3 games with the highest edge. Trying to bet all 14 games in that manner will lead to games where the edge is less than the juice. Believe me, I've given an interocular examination to wagerline/yahoo/whatever consensous, team 'experts' on wagerline, etc; none give a consistent edge.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with you.

Someone who throws darts should have a winrate of 50%. We all know this.

What is surprising is that people don't seem to realize that many people do have a true winrate of below 50%. The reason is that the lines are slightly shaded against favorites, because most bettors tend to pick favorites too often. There really are people out there who can be expected to win 48-49% of their games in the long run.

Still, this is a horrible idea and it is disgraceful that so many of us have even bothered to reply.