FH on Flop - But Villian has draw to possible Higher FH

[JanelleBB7]

So I know villian very well. In fact he is a friend of mine. So there is NO DOUBT in my mind villian has the K here. My question is this... Should I push this flop with my boat here before the turn or should I push it on the turn if he takes no interest? I know he will either think I have a Kxxx like him or that I am fully boated. He knows me and knows I am a good player and would not be pushing with anything less than Kxxx.

Full Tilt Poker
Pot Limit Omaha Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
8 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $73.75
UTG+1: $29
MP1: $73.70
Janellebb7: $69
CO: $32.50
Button: $41.05
SB: $109
BB: $66.95

Pre-flop: (8 players) Janellebb7 is MP2 with 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG calls, 2 folds, Janellebb7 calls, CO folds, Button calls, SB calls, BB checks.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($5, 5 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Janellebb7 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Button bets $2.5</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $5</font>, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">Janellebb7 raises to $22.5</font>, Button folds, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $80

[kolotoure]

He is probably checking 100% of his range on the turn so I am getting it in now and embracing the variance

[CrushinFelt]

Who the [censored] minraises here with K8? Most people hammer this with K8 because they are OOP and will be scared of at least 3 different cards on the turn (AKQ8 leave JT9, AKJ8 leaves QT9, etc.)

So not only is it unlikely that they have K8 because of the retarded minraise, but also because of the 2 8s in your hand.

Also, I'd rule out KK here because who the [censored] minraises when they know no one else can have a K. They would only get paid off by 88 in that case.

I'm pretty sure I shove here.

[RoundTower]

if he would play every Kxxx the same way you should play like this. If his range is heavily weighted towards K8 and K+3 live kickers you have to consider folding.

[sqwisssssss]

[ QUOTE ]
if he would play every Kxxx the same way you should play like this. If his range is heavily weighted towards K8 and K+3 live kickers you have to consider folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

?? fold with the equity involved and holding two 8's?

i gladly call off.

villan is more than likely drawing. i admire your tightness but i think folding is a huge mistake here.

obviously, if you knew villan is drawing.......you gladly call off, right? or am i missing something here?

[CrushinFelt]

[ QUOTE ]
if he would play every Kxxx the same way you should play like this. If his range is heavily weighted towards K8 and K+3 live kickers you have to consider folding.

[/ QUOTE ]

AKQJ is no different than K234. That weighting may marginally change things (because it decreses the liklihood of him having a 6 or 7), but barely. Can't run a sim now but I doubt his equity is much better if you just threw three random cards vs our hand or 3 cards above an 8. Not enough to make this a fold anyways.

Disclaimer: I do hate stacking off in a limped pot without the nuts, but come on, who the [censored] minraises that lol

Disclaimer 2: Yes Pete, start minraising more.

[sqwisssssss]

[/ QUOTE ]


Disclaimer 2: Yes Pete, start minraising more.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol

[wazz]

I think this is actually a fold specifically given your relationship with villain. He is minraising for a reason - whether that reason is that he wants to give you good odds (i.e. he is ahead), he wants to give you the information that you are beat already at a low cost to him (i.e. he has the nuts), he is trying to show weakness to entice you to raise, or he is just trying to get value for when he is ahead/pay for a free river early on. Most of these reasons indicate to me that you are behind. Given that you're never crushing and when behind are drawing dead, and the fact that it's an unraised pot, combined with the above means i can find a fold here.

[Buzz]

[ QUOTE ]
Who the [censored] minraises here with K8?

[/ QUOTE ]SB?

You have to admit, it's hard to put SB on K8YZ when he bets this way.

Put yourself in SB's shoes if he does have K8YZ. He knows he has a very strong hand and he wants to collect on it. Maybe he hopes someone will bet a king or will even bet without a king, trying to steal.

And then, sure enough, someone (Button) bets. Now what? SB can't see the check raise from Heroine coming. SB figures that Button will probably call a raise for as much as he just bet. And so SB, not expecting a check-raise from Heroine, makes a donk check-raise.

But then Heroine makes a pot sized check-raise!

Now SB puts Heroine on a full house for the check raise. If so, then Heroine can either have 88YZ or K8YZ. There are about twice as many ways for Heroine to have K8YZ as 88YZ. But SB figures that Heroine can still easily have 88YZ.

In addition, it occurs to SB that Heroine also might not read him for K8YZ and might simply have AKYZ. And if that is the case, SB wants to make it as expensive as possible for Heroine to try to draw out on him. (Or Heroine could have 88AZ, in which case Heroine is also a potential suck-out threat).

All this could not have occurred to SB when he first decided to be cute and semi-slow play his K8YZ flopped nut full house, because at that point Heroine had not check-raised.

But now the situation is clearer and SB suddenly decides to make it expensive. If Heroine has either AKYZ or 88YZ, it's tough for her to play and tough for her to fold. Under these conditions it's easy for Heroine to make a mistake.

At any rate, K8YZ for SB actually seems rather logical to me. (But SB also might be semi-bluffing with AKYZ, figuring that Heroine will be tempted to fold 88YZ or another AKYZ).

Considering the betting and Janelle's description of SB, I think K8YZ is more likely than AKYZ for SB. However, Heroine has to know the truth if she's going to play with this guy and the only way to find it is to call him down.

But it's a tough call to make.

Buzz

[wazz]

I should add a couple of things. I see plenty of people playing K8 this way; secondly, I'm not saying that you should fold to the minraise, but rather raise again there to see where you are and then fold to the all-in.