Hi/Lo tough river spot with AAA

[2461Badugi]

Been a while since we've had one of these.

7 Card Stud High-Low ($10/$20), Ante $1, Bring-In $3 (converter)

3rd Street - (0.70 SB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___raises
Seat 2: xx xx J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___brings-in___calls
Seat 4: xx xx 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 5: xx xx 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___folds
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls___calls
Seat 8: xx xx Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___folds

4th Street - (3.70 SB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___checks___calls

5th Street - (3.35 BB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___calls

6th Street - (6.35 BB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___bets
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]___calls
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]___calls

River - (9.35 BB)

Hero: J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]___checks___???
Seat 3: xx xx 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] xx___bets
Seat 7: xx xx 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] xx___raises

Wow, looking at it now it seems like an easy fold. Hard to imagine Seat 7 having anything I beat. Not sure why it seemed tough at the time. Anyone disagree?

[Alchemist]

Seat 3 couldv'e hit a low on the river, possibly a flush or both. But it sure looks like Seat 7 got his flush, especially considering how crazy live diamonds are. Not much else he's drawing to. So calling one bet is a no-brainer but I think this spot has to be a fold.

[HOWMANY]

Every time I call here I make the mistake of assuming the raiser is actually a smart player and will raise any pair here to try and get me out. Every time I am proven wrong and get to see their straight, flush or wacky full house.

This specific hand I think the fold is pretty easy simply because diamond are completely live and he started with a 9 up which makes it insanely likely IMO that he started with diamonds.

[RandomUser]

I hate these hands.

As long as your opponents aren't utterly crazy, I think you have to fold.

It is bad enough only getting 6.17/1 on your call(or 3.08/1 actually since it is probably a split), but there is a fair chance that Seat 3 will reraise as well making the odds even worse.

I'd estimate you have <10% chance of winning half the pot.

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
As long as your opponents aren't utterly crazy, I think you have to fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Seat 9 is not necessarily crazy, by raising he might be insuring his 1/2 of the pot - crazy like a fox!

With that said i fold, because its rare that you see optimal river play in this game.

[RubbishCards]

Is anyone concerned about the fact that if seat 7 was going for the flush, he has 2 low cards in the hole and could therefore be raising a low on the river? He probably has about as many outs for a non-flush low as he does for a flush, and even if he made a really rough low, he is probably splitting with seat 3 if he can get you out - either his low is good or his AQ high is very likely to be good given the 3 dead aces that he can see, seat 3 would need a low + flush to scoop him. But then it would suck to pay 4 bets to find out [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

[*TT*]

[ QUOTE ]
But then it would rule to pay 4 bets to find out you won 1/2 the pot

[/ QUOTE ]

FYP

[2461Badugi]

[ QUOTE ]
Every time I call here I make the mistake of assuming the raiser is actually a smart player and will raise any pair here to try and get me out.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wish I had that excuse for calling, but instead I just played like a fish. I'm sure Seat 7 hated me for it, because if I folded he would have won half the pot with ace high. His 86 low was second best.

It was a very good raise on his part, just his bad luck that I've been on low-grade tilt all week and was too dumb to fall for it.

[Andy B]

If I can concoct a way for the raiser to have a low, I'm calling. It's not too difficult in this case.

[SweetLuckyMe]

I'm simply too stubborn to fold 3 aces there. In fact I don't like the check - it announces that you're not sure if your aces up are good - it lets a hand like 3 nines or a backdoor low feel confident in raising.

If you bet 7th can a flush or a ragged backdoored low feel good about raising you? I think betting gets you a 1bet showdown with both a flush and a low, while checking often forces a 2 bet showdown - and occasionally they'll show up with 2 lows and you'll muck half the large pot.