First hand at the Final Table - Clash of the Big Stacks - Page 4

TT_fold · #31 12-25-2005, 10:32 PM

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You're dead against A2, bigger pockets or a set. You're vastly ahead of A9, a smaller PP or a total steal. Against two diamond overs, which is what I would want to have making this move, you're in a coin flip:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1425163
pokenum -h th tc - ad jd -- 2d 9d 2c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2c 9d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Th 508 51.31 482 48.69 0 0.00 0.513
Ad Jd 482 48.69 508 51.31 0 0.00 0.487</pre><hr />Villain may be tricky but he cannot be stupid. To risk his stack against the one player who can knock him out there has to be a reason. I fold here. I don't even know if I call KNOWING it's a coin flip to be honest since I can't help but feel there will be much better edges to come with my still-sizable stack.

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If I knew this hand would be a coinflip, even with all the dead money in the pot, I'd have to advocate a fold.

And yes, I realize playing for first in MTTs is usually superior, but folding still leaves us with the 2nd chip stack.

BTW, I don't really consider myself to be in the accumulator camp OR the survivalist camp. Rather, I'm all about maximizing my $EV in any tournament, and folding here seems to be best unless you consider him likely to be on missed overcards.

Just out of curiosity, what was the payout structure for this tournament? I'd love to see an ICM-type analysis of the minimum percentage edge you'd need in order to call the check-raise on the flop. I venture that it is much higher than 50%, even with all the dead money.

bugstud · #32 12-25-2005, 10:43 PM

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A couple of questions for those advocating a call:

I understand that this looks a lot like a draw, but don't you find it unusual that the villain is playing an unmade hand this fast vs. an unkown player that can bust him when the third place stack is so much shorter?

Given the fact that I should be able to abuse the smaller stacks to my left even if I fold, what kind of edge do I need to call here? What would be a good weighted hand range to use to calculate my equity?

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well, I also liked your position because you have a shot to bust this guy if he's speeding. IMO his hand range, based on what I would do this with, is mostly overs. AK/AQ/KQ, all big diamond draws. If this guy is really good, though, with AA/KK/99/any duece, though...he probably checks the flop too. If he had you beat I really like his line.

that said I probably would have clicked call before even thinking it through.

NYCNative · #33 12-26-2005, 10:03 AM

What happened on this hand?

Rickyroodido · #34 12-26-2005, 12:35 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You're dead against A2, bigger pockets or a set. You're vastly ahead of A9, a smaller PP or a total steal. Against two diamond overs, which is what I would want to have making this move, you're in a coin flip:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>http://twodimes.net/h/?z=1425163
pokenum -h th tc - ad jd -- 2d 9d 2c
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 2c 9d 2d
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Tc Th 508 51.31 482 48.69 0 0.00 0.513
Ad Jd 482 48.69 508 51.31 0 0.00 0.487</pre><hr />Villain may be tricky but he cannot be stupid. To risk his stack against the one player who can knock him out there has to be a reason. I fold here. I don't even know if I call KNOWING it's a coin flip to be honest since I can't help but feel there will be much better edges to come with my still-sizable stack.

[/ QUOTE ] To risk his stack against the one player who can knock him out there has to be a reason

I see alot of reasons. Most important; this is a keyhand.
The one who wins it will have control over the table and probably win the turny.
As villian I would do this with any 2 thinking its just a matter of who gets all the chips in first.
Fold TT?! jesus... not without a solid read, baby.

SossMan · #35 12-26-2005, 01:38 PM

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I think he'd make a continuation bet on the flop if he had TPTK since there's two diamonds. The check-raise claims he has at least one 2 or 99. I'd fold.

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you are totally discounting quads?!?! what about 5 aces?

hang on....

SossMan · #36 12-26-2005, 01:51 PM

he really looks like he's trying to structure it to have max FE w/ the lack of the c-bet. He knows that you are in a tough spot here w/ out a duece or an overpair (he probably doesn't think that you are laying down even TT). Additionally, it's really hard for him to see you calling a raise w/ a duece or not reraising w/ an overpair.

I think that he can be doing this w/ an underpair, some sort of 9 (A9-89), probably JJ protecting against overcards, AK/AQ or two diamonds semibluffing. Even if you discount all these combos by half, they still outweigh all the times he has 99-AA (or A2).

Shove it and don't post bad beats.

NYCNative · #37 12-26-2005, 02:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
The one who wins it will have control over the table and probably win the turny.

[/ QUOTE ]The one who loses it will be out and he can easily win this tournament by escaping intact.

This begs the question: If you knew it was a coin toss (two diamond overs) do you call here? Your response tells me that you would.

Double Eagle · #38 12-26-2005, 02:53 PM

My initial reaction was to call, but then I started to think about the hands a reasonable player could be playing this way. Obviously I had no time to do the math, but it just seemed as if the made hands that I was ahead of would have been leading on this flop, and the most probable holdings for him were the big diamond draws and better pairs.

I ended up taking most of my time clock before zipping up the puss suit and folding. Part of my reasoning was that I thought I could use my position to steal a bunch while the shorter stacks waited to move up. Villain did not show his hand, but said in chat "If you had JJ you should be broke right now". I was able to chip back up pretty easily, and villain played fairly solidly the rest of the way - we ended up HU for 86 hands, where I was able to come back from a 10-1 chip lead and nab second place....

Rickyroodido · #39 12-26-2005, 03:36 PM

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This begs the question: If you knew it was a coin toss (two diamond overs) do you call here? Your response tells me that you would.

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Maybe. It depends on how bloodthirsty I am at the moment.

Double Eagle · #40 12-26-2005, 04:10 PM

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Shove it and don't post bad beats.

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Shouldn't you be over in Other Other Topics giving advice on how to bang MySpace chicks or something?