I think I know the answer, do you?

[aejones]

Villian is IRunPS. A regulars at 2/4 on Stars. He runs 27/8 preflop for me. Not innovative postflop, I generally find him predictable. I doubt he's a winner, if he is, it's because he can beat up on huge fish. I think this is a solid excersize in hand reading.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

CO ($394)
Button ($620.85)
SB ($347.95)
Hero ($840.70)
UTG ($356.05)
MP ($483)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
UTG calls $4, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $20</font>, UTG calls $16.

Flop: ($42) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $30</font>, UTG calls $30.

Turn: ($102) 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $30</font>, Hero calls $30.

River: ($162) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $100</font>,


I think I know the answer, do you? And why?

[rockythecat99]

Raise? I think he has KJ here a lot of the time. But I am a fish.

[billyjex]

river looks like a fold. he sounds predictable and not like a bluffer.

on the flop, he either called you with some piece of it or a T. he would take the free showdown on the river if he didnt have a straight since he'd have a hand with showdown value.

thus fold, and run better.

[viciouspenguin]

yea fold

[aejones]

I think this is a call. At the time, I was 6 tabling and with the fast tables on Stars I wasn't able to think through it enough. But it seemed a little fishy. I tanked and folded. I asked him in the chat "why weren't you afraid of spades?"

Here's my thing. I beat all made hands &lt; straights, obviously we can get that out of the way immediatley. Now, he limped and called a raise. His mostlikely holdings are small pocket pairs, AXs, and two face cards. He can call my flop bet with any T, including QT. On the turn, his bet size is pretty weak. I would expect him to put more money in the pot with QT for sure, and even protect any ten. There is no doubt imo that my most likely holding on the turn was two spades. I can have AQ-AT suited in spades here after check calling. So why isn't he afraid of the river spade? I think his bet sizing leads me to believe that he's got air here- I can't see a naked ten trying to get value this way, and I don't think he flopped the nuts because I think he'd raise me on this flop.

I think I can call here profitably.

[viciouspenguin]

so what do you think he calls flop with, that will not take a free showdown here?

[Anders]

Call, getting 2.62-1 he shows up with 2 pair or worse often enough here. Folding is the 2nd best option, and raising the worst.

[aejones]

[ QUOTE ]
so what do you think he calls flop with, that will not take a free showdown here?

[/ QUOTE ]

QJ, AJ, A9, random small pairs 22-66, 76 suited.

[EverettKings]

instacall

Great bluff card for him, and he's not imaginative so he'd probably at least be a little scared to value bet a straight here.

I don't see how you can do anything else.

[EverettKings]

My guess is his weakish hand turned into a bluff. A9 for the win.