Firing the Second Barrel (long)

[Absolution]

Good post. I agree with most of what you said. I might debate that waiting for the turn with a set against an aggressive opponent on a coordinated board is the optimal play.

[Christian_Peters]

This is [censored] great. It really isn't that long, and I kind of wish it was longer - I wish you would do a follow-up w/ some more examples and cover any other pertinent ideas you didn't cover here (if there are any). VNH. Thanks.

[Watkins]

jrz1972,

Excellent post and just at the right time for me as well as I'm struggling with turn c-bets. One question, presumably hand 6 isn't just a bad spot for c-bet, for instance would you fire again here with KK, QQ, JJ?

HAND 6:
Hero’s hand: Ks Qs out of position.
Villain: not a complete idiot.
Hero open-raises from MP and is called only by villain on the button.
Flop: As 7c 2d
Turn: 6c

[fabadam]

Fantastic. I should have read this 4 months ago, it wouldn't have cost me 200 big bets to learn it at 6-max then.

[ciro bonano]

Great post, just read and re-read it. I really like the 'value check' line, especially when villain bets the turn, I call, he flips over a monster and I just lost the minimum.
[nit]
[ QUOTE ]
In all of these cases, assume that Hero has raised preflop, c-bet the flop, and where applicable has been checked to on the turn by a single opponent.

[/ QUOTE ][/nit]

And I also totally agree with:
[ QUOTE ]
This is [censored] great. I kind of wish it was longer - I wish you or another CT would do a follow-up w/ some more examples and cover any other pertinent ideas you didn't cover here (if there are any). VNH. Thanks.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Big Folder]

great great post. I've been too automatic with my c-bets, simply betting the flop and c/f the turn and yesterday I just realized I needed to change that. Your post will help a lot in that regard.

My question is a lot of things change when you're multiway. At 3/6 live your often seeing the turn with 2-3 donks. C-betting here obviously is a whole new beast when dealing with several guys.

There is likely value in it because you see these guys who call down with any part of the board check/call a As, 9s, 8c flop, Qc turn, 5s river but fold to a river bet with an "ay-yah." They didn't have the A, almost every draw hit or paired them up(10-7 being the sole exception) and they still didn't have enough to call. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] So charge them on the turn and check the river.

[MrWookie]

[ QUOTE ]
thx jrz. I read the whole thing. nh sir.

[ QUOTE ]
Many players don’t get this concept. They raise preflop, flop the nut flush draw, and fire away on the flop (correctly). They then continue on the turn, get checkraised by their single opponent, and figure “Oh well I have so many outs I don’t mind getting raised.” This is wrong, because villain has played optimally against your hand. You lose according to the Fundamental Theorem of Poker.

[/ QUOTE ]

I admit I am sometimes guilty of this so this part rung true for me.

How bout some examples where hero has gutshots both with position and OOP

ozi

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a very good post, but I, like Aussie, feel compelled to comment on this part. In fact, I already have.

When you have a nut flush draw against a loose opponent, yeah, sure, you don't want to be c/r'd. However, there are many more factors that come into play when you're making your decision to bet.

1. How many outs you actually have.

As your number of outs increases, your equity deficit gets so small that the cost of your semibluff is so small that your opponent has to fold a better hand very rarely for the bet to be +EV. Additionally, it's possible (albeit very, very rare) for you to currently have the worst hand on the turn, but still be a favorite to win. There you definitely want to bet, too.

2. Having the best hand.

The nut flush draw in a HU situation is often the best hand, and we typically have an equity edge against our opponent's range (but perhaps not against the range that calls our bet). Still, we'd often rather fold him now and take his equity rather than giving him a free card.

3. Making ourselves overly vulnerable to value bets.

By checking behind, we induce bluffs, yes, but we also induce value bets, bets that we're planning on paying off with our lowly A high. A villain who's bluffing 100% is also value betting 100% typically, and that eats into our profits signficantly. If we're against a better player who'll bluff at us on the river with the game-theory-correct frequency while still value betting his made hands, we're in even more trouble. Against an opponent who'll never bluff c/r, but will always bluff bet if we check, we should bet to stop his river bluffs. If he still donks the river, we can usually lay our hand down safely. On the other hand, if we have a villain who'll bluff c/r the turn 100%, we should STILL bet, because we have the best hand often enough to pump our equity [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]. It's those damn buggers who are in between that cause problems.

Anyone interested can see more on these topics in the post I linked.

This is not to knock jrz's post, though. I'd say betting the turn is something I do too much, and it's a good reminder to tone it back a bit. But betting the turn too little is a mistake, too [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img].

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
Against an opponent who'll never bluff c/r, but will always bluff bet if we check, we should bet to stop his river bluffs.

[/ QUOTE ]

And this also stops him from getting to showdown some percentage of the time for the same price. If he calls our turn bet and bets into us we are beat and can fold. If he checks and we check behind, we sometimes lose to a pair caught on the river.

[ QUOTE ]
It's those damn buggers who are in between that cause problems.

[/ QUOTE ]

It doesn't sound like there are many opponents where inducing a river bluff is the correct play. Maybe it's a guy who bluffs the incorrect amount on the river, but not 100%.

One of the components of semi-bluffing is the ability to bluff a scare card on the next round, but I'm not sure that applies that much on the river.

[MrWookie]

Against an opponent who'll c/r frequently (25%+, I think, bluffs and for value) AND bluff the river frequently, I think we should check.

Also, against an opponent who'll bluff the river frequently even if we bet the turn.

[Absolution]

[ QUOTE ]
Against an opponent who'll c/r frequently (25%+, I think, bluffs and for value) AND bluff the river frequently, I think we should check.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds a lot like the guy you mentioned that will bluff the river some percentage of the time and value bet 100% of the time. Also, what is the game-theory correct amount to river bluff? Is is the amount that makes you think I'm enough of a LAG that you'll give me free river cards and pay off my value bets every time?